Failing pokies warrior Xenophon has achieved little

For a man who came into politics on a “No Pokies” crusade, Nick Xenophon loves a gamble. He turned less than 3 per cent of the statewide vote into a South Australian upper house seat in 1997 then reinvested his winnings, became a powerhouse and hit the jackpot with a switch to Canberra.

His wins have accumulated and now he’s punting on a return to state politics. But Xenophon has the safety net of his team’s three Senate spots and solo federal lower house MP — so his ­influence lives on regardless.

In reality his return to Adelaide is more about reigniting his fractured and dwindling local base. Still, such is his personal appeal that it will probably work. This could be bad news for SA.

After years of clever politicking as the anti-politician politician, Xenophon’s standing is so strong that he is likely to win the eastern suburbs seat of Hartley and possibly have a handful of lower house running mates elected under his SA Best brand.

His success is based on describing the major parties as rubbish — which has worked partly because the major parties have often been rubbish.

However, his record is not one of achievement. For two decades he has been a key player in SA’s energy policy — yet it is a mess, with the nation’s most expensive and unreliable electricity.

It is doubtful he has won any more on water issues or defence handouts than the Liberals and Labor would have demanded anyway. Xenophon, like most independents and minor parties, is about grievances not solutions.

To be fair, he has been a sensible negotiating partner for the Coalition government on a range of issues, even as he always grabbed the limelight and claimed the credit. He has blocked plenty that he should have passed — such as the same-sex marriage plebiscite — but on balance it would be ­easier for Malcolm Turnbull to deal with Xenophon in the Senate than to wrestle him through the proxies he will leave behind.

For SA, the trouble is that Xenophon offers no governing ­alternative or coherent set of policies. He is hard to pin down.

Before last year’s federal election he refused to say which major party he would back to form government even though he ran candidates in the lower house and Senate. If the Liberals had won just one fewer seat he would have helped decide who formed government.

He must be placed under pressure to say who he would back to form government in SA. Voters cannot be expected to outsource this to him after the election.

The state is meandering along in a slow, grinding crisis. Power ­issues are a massive disincentive to investment: it has the largest public sector per capita on the mainland; often has the worst jobless rate; and is reliant on federal subsidies and a cargo-cult mentality for major defence projects.

Labor has failed the state for more than a decade after skewed electoral boundaries kept it in ­office despite losing the popular vote in 2014 by 47 per cent to 53 per cent. New boundaries mean the election in March will be the first fair poll for 30 years — so Labor Premier Jay Weatherill starts from behind.

SA could do with a fresh start under a government with a clear mandate to cut costs, encourage investment and enliven the state; even if Liberal leader Steven Marshall has not set the world on fire.

Xenophon’s protest pitch could see him win the balance of power and there is no way of knowing what he would do with that crucial authority.

This is why he should be honest with South Australians about who he would install in government, and offer detailed policies.

Xenophon is good at what he does — tapping into grievances to maximise a protest vote — but he has not delivered on his main aims. SA now has more poker ­machines than when he started.

He seems to agree the state needs a change but if he makes governing more complicated, Xenophon might just ensure that SA remains moribund.