The Xenophon factor looms large for both major parties

Does Nick Xenophon want to be a kingmaker or could he one day be a premier?

Nick Xenophon’s power to play havoc with Australian politics is obvious in one of the key questions yesterday about his new ambitions.

Does he want to be a kingmaker, or could he one day be a premier?

Xenophon’s support in South Australia really is that strong. It not only puts him ahead of Labor in some races but takes him beyond any other “minor” party around the country.

The major parties are struggling with this threat because Xenophon hits them where it hurts most — the soft centre. Other minor parties come at the Liberals from the right, where Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives try to peel off voters. Labor expects to be challenged on the left, where the Greens are their usual foes.

This makes Xenophon and his team a lethal force. If a Xenophon candidate comes second on primary votes, there is a good chance he or she can romp home after preferences.

The logic is simple: a Labor voter will give an SA Best candidate the second preference over a Liberal candidate, while a Liberal voter will do just the same in reverse.

For all the attention focused on the rise of One Nation in Queensland, the rise of the NXT in South Australia is another compelling example of the fragmentation of the electorate.

Xenophon plays down the idea of winning control in his own right. “I want to win the balance of power along with a number of colleagues,” he says. “The simple arithmetic is we are likely to run in between 12 to 20 seats and that means we are positioning ourselves for a balance-of-power role.”

One key constraint is that he does not have the party structure to field candidates in every one of the state’s 47 lower house electorates.

His pitch is to give voters better government from either of the major parties by imposing checks and balances. It is a classic “keep the bastards honest” message: more powers for the auditor-general, a tougher anti-corruption commission, protection for whistleblowers.

“If you strengthen the institutions that have a key watchdog role, you invariably end up with better government,” he says.

The disenchantment with the two major parties is pervasive. It is a national problem, displayed in unique ways at a state or local level. And the results are hung parliaments.