Dutton has a few handicaps to address

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull during House of Representatives Question Time in Canberra yesterday.

If the Liberals switch leaders again they seem certain to overlook the former prime minister waiting in the wings and take a punt on Peter Dutton. If he were to become prime minister anytime soon Dutton would face some significant handicaps. He would be a stranger to most voters and an almost one-dimensional figure to those who are familiar with him. The Home Affairs Minister is well known by the feral left which views him as a hate figure for his tough border protection approach. Mainstream voters outside of Queensland would probably view him mainly as a competent and dour minister.

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Of course he is better known in his home state and given Queensland will be a crucial election battleground, this has a lot of appeal for the Coalition. Dutton is a strong, family-orientated former policeman and conservative to his bones but another weakness is his lack of recent experience in an economic portfolio, although he served as minister for revenue and assistant treasurer in the final two years of the Howard government.

If Dutton were to get the job you would expect him to want Scott Morrison to stay right where he is as Treasurer.

Dutton would be viewed with disdain by some moderate elements of the Liberal Party. Some colleagues would barrack for his failure in a party that, should another leadership trauma eventuate, would be deeply riven on factional and personal grounds.

All of this will make many voters wonder why the Liberals wouldn’t, instead, go back to Tony Abbott. Like Kevin Rudd before him, he would be reclaiming the job that was cruelly ripped away from him. While he has never been popular, he is a known quantity and the public would understand the natural justice in his return. Voters gave him a landslide victory in 2013 and he is revered by friend and foe alike as an effective campaigner. Abbott would also bring enormous experience to the job.

To my mind, it has always made most sense that if Turnbull imploded or resigned, the party would return to Abbott. No other contenders have imposed themselves on the party or the public. Yet even Abbott now scoffs at the suggestion. The way he reads it, his colleagues have moved on and his legacy has been trashed in public debate. In the current flurry of whispers, texting and conspiring, Abbott would be in the Dutton corner.

And Dutton has been underestimated all of his career while succeeding at every step. He is an engaging and entertaining bloke when he is relaxed among friends, and voters would soon get to make up their own minds.

Importantly, Dutton loves a political fight — he is in it for core values and for triumphing over those who threaten his values. He knows how to soak up insults and abuse and just keep going — like a Maroons forward in State of Origin. He could surprise many people. He would need to, because he would be taking over a befuddled, embittered and broken government on the cusp of an election against a united, hungry and formidable Labor Party.