Cabinet faces overhaul if Dutton takes over as PM

If Peter Dutton does challenge he’ll need to do a lot more than change the name on the door.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton. Picture Kym Smith

If Peter Dutton does challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership and becomes prime minister he is going to have to do a lot more than change the name on the door.

The Home Affairs Minister will face imperative demands from his supporters not just to replace Turnbull but also to drastically change policy and personnel.

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The immediate aim of policy changes and promoting conservative MPs is to draw back alienated Coalition voters to lift the Liberals’ fatal primary vote, while the long-term aim is to “save the Liberal Party” and its values.

This may mean dumping senior moderates from cabinet, risking character assassination from those under threat and perhaps seeing a new Nationals leader.

Most importantly it will mean not being like Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull, who replaced sitting prime ministers and had no plan of immediate action.

One thing Dutton can do is start talking like a Liberal leader on issues — such as religious freedom or law and order — that ­appeal to the base and don’t carry any financial cost.

Conservative MPs are compiling a list of “must dos” for a new leader: restoring the balance ­between moderates and conservatives is the priority.

Turnbull blundered in not keeping Tony Abbott in cabinet and initially freezing out conservatives, including Dutton who was excluded from the national security committee of cabinet.

The first personnel challenge for Dutton is what to do with Julie Bishop. The Foreign Minister who has been deputy to four successive Liberal leaders, including Turnbull twice, could herself be a contender if Turnbull is challenged. The ­argument against Bishop is that she would be seen as “more of the same” moderate leadership and has avoided leadership contests by simply helping the newcomer on the basis of remaining as deputy.

Other moderates have thinner defences. Dutton could rapidly change the Coalition’s grave ­problem with non-government schools’ funding by changing the policy and dumping Simon ­Birmingham as Education Minister. Likewise, Marise Payne, the widely criticised Defence Minister could go — possibly replaced by Abbott — and new life given to ­defence as a Coalition policy strength. Dutton could keep his NSW Senate and female cabinet balance by promoting Connie ­Fievarranti-Wells to cabinet and lift his conservative score. After the battering on energy policy, Dutton would probably have to move Josh Frydenberg but keep him in a senior position.

Yesterday Turnbull may have bought himself some time as Liberal leader — about three weeks — with his dramatic “shelving” of the national energy guarantee legislation and a new suite of power price-control options. But in doing so he ceded his leadership authority to the Coalition backbench rebels and surrendered a political opportunity to force Bill Shorten to make a choice between emissions and lower energy prices.

Turnbull is no longer in control as the Coalition tries to come up with last-minute solutions to problems brewing for more than a year.

While some hotheads are urging Dutton to move immediately, others argue he should wait until the September sitting, which will resume on the Monday of the ­expected 40th losing Newspoll in a row for the Coalition.

Whatever the timing, it is becoming more probable there will be a leadership challenge and Dutton has to consider what policies he will change, what issues he can offer as “red meat” to disaffected Coalition supporters and most ­importantly what image his cabinet and ministry will project.