Choosing Bob Carr will build momentum for Julia Gillard

Illustration: Eric Lobbecke

ONCE you get past the fact that our Prime Minister deliberately misled earlier this week with her "completely untrue" answer to questions about a report in this paper speculating on Bob Carr's appointment as foreign minister, Julia Gillard's appointment of Bob Carr as foreign minister is an excellent one

It gets a little messy when you put it all in one sentence like that, doesn't it?

Partially untrue, not the full story, a yarn which got a little ahead of itself, maybe? Blemishes along the way, perhaps? Each of these form of words would have been far better descriptions. The PM's "completely untrue" rhetoric was not a stretch, it was a downright lie.

Gillard should study Aristotle when considering her use of political rhetoric. His advice was not to use absolutes in rhetoric or logic, which is something the PM does too often when trying to shut down media questioning. It always gets her into trouble, in this instance detracting from a very good decision.

That said, the image of Gillard providing yet another example of being loose with the truth probably won't add to her problems all that much. That particular voter perception is already entrenched, I suspect.

She will rightly be whacked for being misleading, but the ultimate decision to appoint Carr and to stand up to the internal critics of such a move is what matters most. And it has the real potential in the coming months to (just maybe) help Gillard build all-important momentum.

I suspect a Gillard revival (if her leadership was ever really alive before now) is unlikely, so entrenched are negative attitudes towards her. But she has now given herself the best chance possible, other than the messy way she arrived at her decision, of course.

Few inside Labor believe they can still win the next election. Even the PM's own advisers roll their eyes when she walks into the office with her now ritualised daily declaration, "let's make a difference".

You at least have to admire Gillard's resolve in the face of trying circumstances (albeit largely of her own making).

History tells us prime ministers can win elections even when they are despised by the public (Paul Keating in 1993) and despite a taint of being loose with the truth (John Howard in 2004). But only if they are respected for their core competency and their strength of leadership.

Yesterday Gillard showed leadership strength in spades by appointing Carr to the foreign affairs portfolio. And the move just might be the first of many, with senior Labor sources speculating that Peter Beattie, Steve Bracks and even Mike Rann could be convinced to make a move federally. She now needs to lead a more competent government. Carr will certainly help with that.

The federal government needs momentum. Labor strategists had hoped that Monday's ballot - and her thumping 71 to 31 victory - would give Gillard momentum for at least a period of months. A chance to succeed or fail on her own terms. But less than a week later, momentum had once again been brought to a grinding halt, right at a time when key Gillard defender Mark Arbib is no longer around to protect her.

Politics can sure move fast in this country.

Carr's elevation should help Gillard in the post-Rudd challenge environment. So long as the PM doesn't get bogged down in her messy way of arriving at yesterday's decision. Carr is an adult and Labor needs more of them in the cabinet room; forget Tony Abbott's attempts to stigmatise him with the failures of the final-term NSW Labor government.

Carr was a good premier and an excellent politician (there is, of course, a difference). There are many important points about the Carr shift into federal politics. First, it is a show of confidence in Gillard by a well-regarded former premier. Second, his parliamentary performances and media performances will be first-rate. Third, it lifts the standard of Labor's senate team.

Finally, and most importantly, it inserts a quality performer in the foreign affairs portfolio, guaranteeing that Rudd's move to the backbench does not mirror Keating's in 1991. Keating left a void in Bob Hawke's finance team, and had a lesser light replaced Rudd in foreign affairs, a similar outcome in that portfolio area could have ensued.

Not now. Carr will be a better foreign minister than Rudd was, plain and simple.

The politically important aspect to the Carr appointment is that Gillard stood up to Stephen Smith and Simon Crean. While it's nice that the pair of senior ministers finally found their collective voice after years of gutless silence when Rudd was leader, despite grave personal reservations about his performance, Gillard needed to stand up to them and make an independent decision.

The media imagery of Gillard being brow-beaten into not appointing Carr foreign minister once the NSW organisational division of the party had given the green light to his elevation into the casual senate vacancy could not stand. What we will probably never know is just how prominently the optics of weakness in recent days featured in Gillard's decision to appoint Carr.

Two weekends ago I wrote a piece advising the PM to adopt the Seinfeld character George Costanza approach in her decision-making. After realising that his every instinct in life was wrong, Costanza determined to do the opposite. His life suddenly started working out for him. The PM baulked when challenged by Smith and Crean that she should not appoint an outsider to the foreign affairs portfolio. That was her natural instinct. Perhaps on reflection she decided to do the opposite and stand up to the pair. The result? An excellent appointment as foreign minister.

Peter van Onselen is a Winthrop professor at the University of Western Australia.