Abbott is safe as long as PM stays

LABOR has come back in the polls (a primary vote lift from 27 to 32 per cent in one month) despite Julia Gillard's unpopularity.

The Coalition continues to lead the government comfortably on the primary and two-party figures despite the unpopularity of Tony Abbott.

The Prime Minister's net satisfaction rating - the number of voters satisfied with her performance minus those who are dissatisfied - is bottom feeding at minus 30.

Abbott's rating isn't much better at minus 29, having fallen sharply in this latest Newspoll. The only opposition leaders to have had worse ratings never went on to lead governments.

Two things are clear in the murky world of federal politics: first, voters can't stand Gillard and intend to vote her out at the next election (ending the careers of a multitude of Labor MPs in the process). Second, they don't like the look of the alternative the opposition is offering up, thus turning an annihilation into a mere landslide.

Team Gillard hopes that cheques (read bribes) and government-funded advertising (read propaganda) will further lift its numbers. Team Abbott is banking on a change of government courtesy of voter anger (read misunderstanding) over the carbon tax and hatred towards Gillard (who broke her promise about the tax).

If the second pillar of the opposition's case for change is stripped away, via a Kevin Rudd comeback, voter disdain towards the government should subside.

It would make Labor more competitive and put Abbott under more pressure. Yesterday's recovery in Labor's numbers, according to Newspoll, probably delays the case for change in the eyes of Labor MPs nervous about orchestrating another leadership coup.

But the PM's unpopularity (alongside that of the Opposition Leader), coupled with improved party numbers for Labor, actually makes now the time to strike.

The argument is simple: brand Labor is alive (albeit just) even if brand Gillard is dead.

Abbott's poor personal numbers won't matter so long as the Coalition maintains a healthy lead on the party votes, which it will go on doing so long as voters dislike Gillard. If a Rudd comeback tightened those numbers, as it should, just watch the opposition turn on itself in quick time.

Both leaders are brittle, but for Abbott to fall, Gillard must fall first.