Guide to the US mid-term elections

This year’s US mid-terms will define the Trump presidency whichever way they go.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Picture: AP.

What are the mid-terms?

The midterm elections are held every four years, halfway through the sitting president’s four year term, with the focus on Congress, made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate. This year they are held on November 6.

Representatives in the House serve two year terms, with all 435 seats up for re-election.

Senators serve staggered six year terms so rather than the entire Senate being up for re-election this year, just 35 Senate seats are being elected.

Whatever the outcome, the 2018 campaign is one for the record books. More money has been spent than in any midterm election and a surge in early voting has prompted predictions of the biggest midterm turnout since the height of the Vietnam War more than 50 years ago. At least 30 million Americans have cast their ballots, easily surpassing 2014.

How many seats do the Democrats and Republicans need to control the Senate and House of Representatives?

Polls are indicating that the Democrats will regain control of the House with a single digit majority while the Republicans are expected to keep control of the Senate.

House of Representatives: All 435 seats are up for grabs, and the parties need 218 seats to win a majority.

The Republicans currently hold the House with 236 seats to the Democrats’ 195, so the Democrats need hold all their seats and to flip 23 seats to win a majority.

History is on the side of the Democrats. Since World War II the president’s party typically loses an average of 26 seats in the mid-terms and often much more when a president’s approval rating is below 50 per cent, as Donald Trump’s is.

According to The Wall St Journal, Republican officials have already ceded seven GOP-held districts to the Democrats, spending no money on TV to defend them. Nine additional GOP-held House seats in suburban areas are already lost, party officials conceded.

That means Democrats need to win just seven of about three dozen toss-up districts to clinch the House majority.

Senate: One third of the Senate is up for election, with 51 seats needed for control. With the current balance at 51 - 49, the Democrats need two seats to regain the senate. But the Senate is more difficult for the Democrats to win because they are defending 10 seats in states that were won by Mr Trump.

Polls suggest the Democrats have probably already lost North Dakota to Republicans, meaning they would need to pick up the very few vulnerable Republican seats in Arizona, Nevada and possibly Tennessee to forge a narrow majority. Republicans are confident they will be able to keep or expand their majority here.

Why do these elections matter?

Whichever way they go this year, the mid-terms will be seen as a vote about Donald Trump’s presidency and will play a crucial role in shaping its future.

Whoever wins them wins controls the passage of legislation. A Democrat win means not only will they be able to block Donald Trump’s bills but the way will be cleared for them to target Mr Trump himself.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Picture: AFP.

What happens if the Democrats win the House or Senate?

Donald Trump enters these elections in a position of strength because the US economy is humming, with fresh strong figures released only days ago showing strong jobs growth, historically low unemployment and - crucially - signs of proper wages growth after an era of wages stagnation.

However, if the Republicans lose control or either the House or Senate, the Democrats will be able to

block Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, which includes a second go at repealing Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, raising funds for a border wall and infrastructure reform.

They will also have the numbers to launch a series of investigations into Mr Trump himself, ­including his family finances, his tax records and an extension of the FBI’s probe into White House links with Russia.

Possibly the first thing the Democrats would do is to launch impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump. But if the Republicans win the senate, as expected, this would be little more than a political statement because it would almost certainly would be blocked in the Senate.

Soldiers string razor wire near the port of entry at the US-Mexico border. Picture: AFP.

What are the key issues at stake?

The most important factors influencing American voters are the Supreme Court, the economy and jobs, healthcare and immigration.

Economically, Mr Trump can rightly claim to voters that under his presidency Americans are enjoying good times. Polls suggest that for many voters a strong economy, jobs and the ability to put food on the dinner table often outweighs what they see as the negative aspects of his leadership.

But immigration has taken over the national conversation, particularly with the caravan of asylum seekers from Central America and this has proven a gift for Mr Trump to energise his core supporters.

In the past two weeks he has promised (along with a 10 per cent tax cut for the middle class) up to 15,000 troops to protect the southern border from “invaders”; and a constitutional change to end citizenship by birthright.

But the President himself is a major factor: in many ways, the elections are seen as a referendum on Mr Trump’s presidency. House Republicans in tight races are trying to make their contests a referendum on local issues rather than on the president and some are even openly criticising the president in areas where voters have conservative leanings but don’t like Mr Trump himself.

Battlefield areas

While the rust belt and rural areas were key battlegrounds in the 2016 election, this year it is the suburbs of towns where the mid-terms are likely to be decided. This is the heartland of those who voted for Mr Trump but are disillusioned by his style and who pose the greatest risk of abandoning the Republicans.

The biggest challenge is Mr Trump’s growing disconnect with female voters. The key battlegrounds in the nation’s suburbs are filled with conservative-leaning, educated women who polls show have had a more adverse reaction to the president than any other Republican group.

A study by the Wall Street Journal this week found that the gap in political views by education and gender has widened as women with college degrees have grown more negative about Mr Trump, while men without degrees have grown warmer towards him since his inauguration.

The suburbs of towns are the heartland of those who voted for Donald Trump and are now disillusioned by him. Picture: AFP.

Races to watch:

West Des Moines: Iowa’s third congressional district, where a first-time Democratic candidate, is neck-and-neck with the incumbent Republican, in a district that backed Mr Trump by only three points.

Iowa’s first district where a similar showdown is happening

The two contests are seen as bellwethers for the “blue wave”, that the Democrats hope will sweep them to power on Capitol Hill. Two victories would give the Democrats three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, of which they now have one.

If neither Democrat wins, the wave will fail and the Republicans may even hold the House, vindicating the president’s abrasive style. It would also dent hopes that this will be the “year of the woman”.

Texas (Senate): where Ted Cruz is battling to hold off three-time Democrat Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Republicans say they’re ocnfident Mr Cruz will win but Mr O’Rourke has excited interest here and early voting has reached such levels Democrats say the result could go either way. If Mr O’Rourke wins, it could have serious implications for 2020.

North Dakota (Senate): Democrat Senator Heidi Heitkamp, 10 points down in the polls, is battling to hold her seat but is expected to lose to the Republicans.

Nevada, Montana (Senate): Together with North Dakota, these states will likely determine control of the Senate.

Arizona (Senate): An open Senate seat creates a rare opening for Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to gain a seat for her party, but her fight against Rep. Martha McSally has been extremely tight. The seat is open because Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican, is retiring.

Minnesota: Four races in Minnesota are a bellwether for control of the House. Both parties agree that if Democrats win in three of these four districts, it would be a bad sign for the GOP elsewhere in the country.

Virginia: There are several opportunities for House Democrats to pick up seats. Rep. Barbara Comstock, an incumbent in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, is considered among the most vulnerable Republicans as she squares off against Democrat Jennifer Wexton.

When do we know the result?

Polls close on Wednesday morning 10am AEDT but we won’t have any significant results until around midday AEDT.

With the Wall St Journal