Theresa May’s Brexit transition could last years, papers show

Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan could leave Britain in a “long-running” multi-year transition period.

The Queen chats with Theresa May as they wait to greet Dutch King Willem-Alexander and his wife Queen Maxima, in London. Picture: AP

Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan could leave Britain in a “long-running” multi-year transition period despite her promise that it would last only a few months, according to leaked cabinet papers.

Cabinet ministers have been warned by officials that there is no guarantee Britain will be able to extricate itself from the transition arrangements in her preferred Brexit option.

The leaked documents concede that the plan “could, in theory, lead to a long-running IP (implementation period)”. They make clear that the arrangement could last for many years on a “rolling” basis with an “annual decision point” where any transition extension is reviewed.

This would appear to contradict the Prime Minister, who said last week the arrangement could be extended “for a few months”. On Monday, Mrs May told MPs the implementation plan would end “well before the end of this parliament”, by 2022 at the latest.

Mrs May was to last night appear before the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, in a move Downing Street hopes will be regarded as a sign of confidence. Fifty MPs, however, have given a commitment to oppose key elements of Brexit plan.

In a boost for Mrs May, the latest YouGov poll for The Times gives the Conservatives a five-point lead nationally over Labour.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock told MPs the government would introduce a reciprocal healthcare bill to guarantee British citizens access to healthcare in the EU after Brexit.

One cabinet minister said that after cabinet discussions on Tuesday Mrs May clearly knew the “limits” of any deal they could negotiate with Brussels to avoid co-ordinated resignations. The minister said that Brexiteers had made clear that a deal could never include a so-called backstop in which Northern Ireland was divided from the rest of Britain. The minister added Britain must have the right to unilaterally pull out of any extended transition period or Customs arrangement to trigger a no-deal scenario.

Mrs May’s plan led to a cabinet outcry in which Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox suggested that the plans amounted to Dante’s “first circle of hell”. A Whitehall source pointed out that the first circle of hell was “limbo”.

Others including Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt intensified their criticism, while Treasury chief secretary Liz Trus joined the half a dozen cabinet members including Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt demanding a unilateral mechanism to escape the backstop.

The documents are understood to have been drawn up by Oliver Robbins, Mrs May’s principal Europe adviser, on the instructions of Downing Street and circulated around Whitehall.

Downing Street’s preferred option creates the potential for a VAT tax border down the Irish Sea, a move likely to anger unionists in the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionist Party.

A Downing Street spokesman said: “This is nothing more than a partial reflection of advice to ministers, and not of decisions taken. The Prime Minister made her position absolutely clear in the House of Commons on Monday.

“As the PM said then, we do not believe any extension to the implementation period will be necessary and, in any event, we would have to be out of it well before the end of the parliament.

“We would not accept a position in which the UK, having negotiated in good faith an agreement which prevents a hard border in Northern Ireland, finds itself indefinitely locked into an alternative, inferior arrangement against our will.”

The Times