Theresa May has 10 days of turbulence to save deal

Theresa May has 10 days to find the political equivalent of Gaviscon during perhaps the most turbulent period in UK politics since 1940.

Theresa May is facing 10 days of political turbulence with no guarantee of success over her Brexit deal. Picture: AFP.

Contemplating a return from the festive break, one cabinet minister was short on Christmas spirit last week: “The next few weeks are going to be hideous.”

When MPs disappeared a fortnight ago, Theresa May’s aides had hoped that a period of reflection would encourage more Tories to support her Brexit deal in the vote, already delayed, due on January 15.

“The hope was that MPs would go home and consume much milk and honey and return with a different perspective. But that doesn’t seem to have happened,” one of May’s team conceded. Another said: “The people with Brexit indigestion are still dyspeptic.”

Mrs May has about 10 days to find the political equivalent of Gaviscon during perhaps the most turbulent period in British politics since 1940.

Behind the scenes her aides are working on ways to provide reassurance to Brexiteers that the so-called Brexit backstop — which would keep Britain in a customs union with the EU if there is no formal trade deal in place by the end of 2020 — is not permanent.

Julian Smith, the chief whip, is pressing for Downing Street to support an amendment that would allow a signal to be sent to Brussels about what concessions are needed to pass the deal.

Nikki da Costa, Mrs May’s former head of legislative affairs, who is still close to No 10 officials, said: “If the government is able to craft an amendment that sufficiently recognises the concerns of MPs and says, ‘This is what you need to get this over the line’, and that produces a majority, the prime minister would respond within 24 hours and say she was off back to the EU.”

Any concessions are likely to include a provision that parliament could serve notice to the EU of the UK’s intention to leave the backstop within 12 months unless a trade deal was put in place that would ensure no hard border in Ireland.

Ministers believe they have the right to leave the backstop unilaterally under the Vienna convention, which governs international treaties.

Another possible trump card being discussed by Mrs May’s team would be to ask the European Court of Justice to give an opinion, confirming that the backstop could be only temporary, to try to reassure Brexiteers that the EU’s top court would not stand in the UK’s way if it tried to exit the backstop in future years.

Others are not convinced this will fly with the European Research Group (ERG) of Brexit hardliners led by Jacob Rees-Mogg. One aide said: “I’m not sure that asking the ERG to accept the word of the European court, the institution they least trust, is the way to win this.”

ERG figures, including deputy chairman Steve Baker, say they would demand that the government publishes legal advice on any new Brussels declaration in the belief that this would expose it was not worth the paper it was written on.

Former cabinet minister Priti Patel said: “We were told the backstop would provide an exit mechanism and wouldn’t separate our union. This proved not to be the case. Sadly, it took MPs demanding the government’s own legal advice to reveal this. Any further elements … must be subject to written legal advice from the attorney-general so parliamentarians can judge the merits for themselves.”

Mrs May’s supporters are trying to form an alliance of all MPs who want a deal of some sort, even if they cannot yet agree on what it looks like. With that in mind they are meeting up to 60 Midlands MPs on Tuesday, including the Tory Caroline Spelman and Labour’s Jack Dromey, who have urged the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit amid concerns about the Jaguar Land Rover plant in Solihull.

In what one insider has dubbed “the Alan Partridge strategy”, the prime minister’s team is considering holding meetings outside Westminster to build trust — in motorway hideaway hotels like the one where the fictional radio presenter once lived. “There are a lot of motels and [budget hotels] where you could meet anonymously,” a source said.

In a further attempt to twist arms, Mrs May has invited every Conservative MP to drinks receptions in Downing Street tomorrow and Wednesday.

The prime minister is to take personal charge of no-deal planning this week, chairing a new committee called EUXT (Preparedness) to ensure the UK is ready to leave on March 29. The Brexit department will this week launch a radio advertising campaign to get people ready.

No-deal planning will step up tomorrow when 150 hauliers test the road between Dover and Manston airport in Kent to see if the airfield — used for Dambusters tests in 1943 — can now be used as a lorry park.

Leaked papers seen by The Sunday Times show that ministers are trying to secure 10 bilateral deals with EU member states but there are fears that these are “unlikely” to be successful because of EU intransigence. They include rail deals with Ireland, France and Belgium.

Officials are also working to replicate 170 international treaty arrangements which the UK is part of as an EU member state and 50 non-treaty arrangements.

The papers, which were presented to cabinet before Christmas, reveal that 100 arrangements that the UK currently enjoys will be lost because they cannot be replicated or will take too long.

The government’s first challenge will come on Tuesday when two cross-party groups of MPs will step up efforts to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

One group, led by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, will table an amendment to the finance bill to strip the Treasury of no-deal powers unless MPs vote for a deal or explicitly endorse no deal.

A second group, led by Sir Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat leader, wants to prevent the chancellor raising taxes if there is no deal.

The Commons appears so deadlocked that cabinet ministers are openly speculating that Mrs May could delay the big vote for a second time while the arm-twisting continues. The key to victory appears to be the position of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Privately, Mrs May’s aides believe they might be able to persuade nine of the DUP’s MPs to back down or abstain if they can secure a binding declaration from Brussels that the backstop is temporary.

“Most of the DUP don’t actually want no deal,” said one senior figure, “except for Sammy.” That is a reference to Sammy Wilson, the party’s Brexit spokesman, who said last week there was “no way” the DUP would back the deal.

There is also a hope that the wind might be changing in Dublin, where Leo Varadkar’s government has taken a tough line on the backstop, but which appealed last week to Brussels for emergency cash to support farmers in the event of no deal. After talks on Thursday with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, Mr Varadkar expressed a willingness to help Mrs May.

The Sunday Times has learnt that Ireland’s ambassador had approached a senior cabinet minister before Christmas and said the EU would offer a “prize” on the backstop if it was convinced that Mrs May would actually win the vote.

Irish political grandees are now said to be telling Mr Varadkar that his approach risks causing economic disaster because most of Ireland’s trade goes through the UK. “The message is, ‘Well done, you’ve driven a hard bargain but you need to be careful because if this goes wrong it will be a disaster for Ireland,’” a British source revealed.

The position of the Labour front bench is also key. Jeremy Corbyn’s team is committed to voting against Mrs May’s deal but some sources say it might offer Labour MPs a free vote on other amendments or a second vote.

One irate Labour source said: “If he does that he will be facilitating Brexit, but it would allow him to turn around and say he has left it to the will of the party.”

Ultimately, the decisions are Mrs May’s and none of her colleagues seems confident predicting what she will do. “She seems to think no deal is less bad than calling another referendum,” one source said.

Others think she is more likely to request an extension to article 50 to buy time. “It is a focus group of one,” a minister said. “And it hasn’t reported yet. She never tells anyone anything.”

If Mrs May cannot find her way through the mess, many predict a crisis of historic proportions. “If MPs don’t vote for this thing, you end up with paralysis,” one May ally admitted.

A cabinet minister said: “This is the moment of truth for an entire political generation. It’s a test for all MPs. Will they be able to deliver what people voted for in 2016? It’s not clear that they are ready to face the facts.”

The Sunday Times