Brexit: Theresa May’s troops prepare for battle amid MP defiance, Labour games

The PM is scrambling for allies as hundreds of MPs defy her and ministers fall out over whether to court Labour.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing for her last throw of the dice to get her Brexit deal back on track. Picture: AP

On Friday morning, Downing Street staff assembled to listen to the historian Sir Anthony Seldon discuss documents from the national archives on the 1879 defence of Rorke’s Drift, immortalised in the film Zulu. The small group of embattled aides, outnumbered and seemingly under attack from all sides, drew strength as they pored over a battle map drawn up by Lieutenant John Chard, played by Stanley Baker in the film, who led his men to one of the most improbable victories in military history.

Theresa May’s team were reeling from a week in which the British prime minister suffered the worst Commons defeat in living memory when MPs rejected her painstakingly negotiated deal with Brussels by a staggering 230 votes.

This weekend she is planning a final throw of the dice to put the deal back on track, but in a way that has created bitter divisions in her own inner circle and prompted threats of resignations from both sides of her divided party.

May will this week outline plans — including an attempt to turn the Irish backstop, opposed by Brexiteers, into a standalone treaty with Ireland unconnected with Brexit — designed to win over her Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) allies and the hard Brexiteers of the European Research Group under Jacob Rees-Mogg.

In so doing she has sided with her party chairman Brandon Lewis and her chief whip Julian Smith against her closest aide, chief of staff Gavin Barwell, who was encouraging May to edge towards permanent membership of a customs union in order to drum up support from Labour MPs. A cabinet minister said: “Gavin would like to be able to find a way to get more opposition support.”

Lewis and Smith have warned that this course of action would destroy the Tory party. Insiders say Barwell and May have been at “loggerheads” and Barwell’s deputy JoJo Penn, in turn, is at “daggers drawn” with the chief whip.

A senior Tory said: “It’s Julian against Gavin. Julian is telling her, ‘You’re going to split the party if you go with this.’ Gavin is saying, ‘You’re going to need something else. If parliament votes for a customs union, that gives you a way out.’ ”

An MP who recently witnessed a stand-off between Barwell and Smith in a Commons corridor, said: “It was not a pleasant conversation. They were like a couple of stags facing each other.”

With some No 10 staff afraid Barwell will resign — and take remainer cabinet ministers with him — those doing broadcast interviews have been told not to “tiptoe” around questions of the customs union. This has angered cabinet remainers. One said: “They never seem to care when we are on the verge of resignation.”

A DUP source said May’s survival depended on getting Eurosceptics back on board: “I understand why she needs to reach out to Labour, but she ultimately needs to cut a deal with Tories and DUP, otherwise you can’t govern afterwards.”

DUP Party leader Arlene Foster and Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds leave No.10 this week. Picture: AP

May’s decision to ignore Barwell comes after an outreach effort to opposition MPs last week by the prime minister and her cabinet failed to identify enough Labour MPs who might back her, even if she did opt for a customs union.

In part, that was because ministers were not told what they were supposed to be negotiating. A cabinet source complained: “We didn’t know what her bottom lines are. It’s like being asked to bid for something, not knowing whether you can offer 5000 pounds or 50,000 pounds.” Another minister said: “They say she’s in listening mode, but she’s always in listening mode. I want to see her and just for once to have her tell us what she’s thinking.”

Even before last week’s talks got under way, May had been meeting Labour MPs, including John Mann, the MP for Bassetlaw, who ended up backing the deal. Some Labour MPs urged May to bypass Jeremy Corbyn and bring union leaders and even shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer into the government’s negotiating team. May’s team are now preparing to make pledges on workers’ rights to help Mann recruit more converts. But a senior government source said: “The numbers just aren’t there.”

Downing Street is instead pinning its hopes on a change of heart from Eurosceptics. Some in the ERG believe their leadership is “softening” its opposition to May’s deal. On Tuesday, after the big vote, Rees-Mogg hosted a drinks party at his pounds 5m Westminster home. But friends say he is looking for a way to back May to derail efforts by Nick Boles and Dominic Grieve to use a parliamentary device to derail Brexit.

“Jacob is looking for a ladder to climb down,” said one prominent Tory. “He’s very worried the Boles plan could work.”

For their part, up to 20 ministers are demanding the right to vote for the Boles plan — which will be tabled tomorrow (Monday) and would let MPs seize control of Commons business — and are threatening to quit if they are blocked. But members of the ERG said that if Julian Smith offers a free vote, Brexiteers might be prepared to bring down the government. “People in the ERG have talked about voting against the government in a motion of no-confidence. If Julian is caught promoting the Boles plan, they should be very wary of testing the loyalty of MPs,” one said.

One Barwell proposal under consideration by May’s aides to drum up more support from the ERG — but not yet agreed to by the prime minister — would be to tell the Brexiteers she would resign in May or June so one of their own could run the second phase of Brexit talks.

Barwell has discussed this idea with at least two cabinet ministers. Staff acting for two Whitehall permanent secretaries recently called the political team at No 10 asking whether the PM would be prepared to signal that she will quit. A source said: “The response came back that while the chief herself had not thought about it, the team around her had.”

If May cannot secure the backing of the DUP and a large part of the ERG, then cabinet Brexiteers — and ministers such as Jeremy Hunt, who believe May must honour the 2016 referendum result — are prepared to demand a general election.

Recent visitors to Tory campaign HQ say the offices were a hive of activity with “every desk occupied”. “It used to be like a morgue in there,” one recalled.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Picture: AFP

Cabinet ministers have been bolstered by internal Tory polling that shows Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is underperforming because remain supporters who voted Labour in 2017 are disillusioned by Corbyn’s determination to back Brexit and oppose a new EU referendum.

The Tory polling is echoed by a memo prepared for the People’s Vote campaign by pollster Peter Kellner. It says: “If [Labour] fought an election appearing to condone Brexit, it risks losing the votes of many remainers ... It is clear to me that enough Lab 2017 voters would switch to the Lib Dems in Lab-Con marginals, especially with large student populations, to hand those seats to Con.

“It is hard to see Lab retaining seats such as Canterbury and Kensington — let alone gaining the 60+ seats it needs to secure a Commons majority ... If it makes clear that Brexit would go ahead under a Corbyn government, Labour will lose the election, probably heavily.”

Corbyn’s defeat when he called a motion of no-confidence in the government on Wednesday has left the Labour leader facing huge pressure to back a second referendum. “Labour’s strategy seems to have been to let Brexit happen without getting the blame,” a pro-referendum source said. “But Labour now knows that Brexit will only happen if they vote for it.”

In Tuesday’s shadow cabinet meeting, frontbenchers from the left such as Ian Lavery argued that Corbyn should not back a referendum since it would cost votes in the party’s heartlands.

But Starmer made clear he wants a referendum. He warned Corbyn that unless he gets a general election soon, he has only three options: to do a deal with the Tories on a customs union, an option, he said, “that means we own Brexit as well”; to back a new referendum; or to allow a no-deal Brexit. “I want to be really clear,” he said gravely. “I did not sign up for that.” Starmer paused and repeated: “I. Did. Not. Sign. Up. For. That.”

Up to 120 Labour MPs are privately prepared to back the People’s Vote campaign. But those who back a Norway-style deal believe at least 75 Labour MPs are opposed to a referendum. “Upwards of 25 would be prepared to break the whip if they were asked to vote for a referendum,” a source said.

As all this plays out, ministers are growing convinced that article 50 has to be delayed. More than 300 pieces of secondary legislation still need to be approved. A Tory close to No 10 said: “Everyone who is close to this agrees it’s a racing certainty that we will need an extension to article 50.” A cabinet minister added: “The chances are vanishingly small that we leave on March 29.”

Some in Team May are contemplating forcing MPs to sit around the clock. “We might have to look at weekend sittings and we can probably wave goodbye to the February half-term,” one ally said. But this is not supported by Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, who believes it would unnecessarily antagonise “scratchy and tired” MPs.

Those looking for hope see May as a latter-day Lieutenant Chard, rallying her troops to hold the line in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Other No 10 staff present on Friday morning looking for allegories of their fate recall another of the documents: a letter written in invisible ink from Henry Garnet, a Jesuit priest involved in the Gunpowder Plot. The history books show that he was eventually hanged, drawn and quartered.

The Times