Brexit: Commons could hop into the driving seat

What next for Britain after Theresa May’s huge defeat in the House of Commons? These are the likely scenarios.

British Prime Minister Theresa May listens to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn speaking after losing a vote on her Brexit deal.

In the immediate aftermath of her Brexit defeat, Theresa May ­announced that, for the first time in the Brexit process, she would reach out to MPs from other parties to try to identify “what would be required” to ­secure the backing of parliament for an alternative deal.

She added that if those meetings yielded ideas, the government would “explore them with the ­European Union”.

But Downing Street later insisted Mrs May was not looking to move away from her core principles of taking Britain out of the customs union and single market.

What now for Labour?

If, as expected, the no-confidence motion fails today and ­Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn fails to secure a general election, the pressure will be on the Labour leader to set out a new Brexit ­policy.

Many Labour members want him to call for a second referendum. But he may seize on Mrs May’s offer of cross-party talks to try to buy more time to see if the government will move towards Labour’s position of keeping ­Britain in a customs union with the EU and a close single-market relationship.

 

When will Mrs May go back to Brussels?

Mrs May was clear that she would not go to Brussels until next week at the earliest, after the cross-party talks in Westminster. In particular, Mrs May will want to try to establish what the DUP might settle for — if anything — in terms of concession on the Irish backstop.

EU leaders have been clear that before they make any further moves they need to have reasonable confidence that the deal has the prospect of getting through parliament. The likelihood is that Mrs May will meet EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker or EU Council president Donald Tusk at some point in the next two weeks to explore what might be possible. However, it is almost certain that any changes to the deal will require a full summit of EU leaders.

When will parliament next get to debate Brexit?

Mrs May has announced her intention to make a further statement on the next steps on Monday, when the government will table an amendable motion for MPs to ­debate later next week. That will be the opportunity for MPs to try to seize control of the process and possibly even try to amend the law to extend Article 50, should it be impossible to come to an agreement by March. Mrs May’s aides said yesterday that she was not in favour of giving MPs the opportunity to hold a range of so-called indicative votes on different ways forward — ­including a second referendum — to test the will of the House of Commons. But this could yet be forced upon her. The reality of Tuesday’s defeat — and in particular the scale of it — is that it is parliament rather than the Prime Minister that will be in the driving seat in the weeks ahead.

The Times