Coalition is facing an uphill battle in must-win state

The Coalition’s political recovery in Queensland has stalled with the government facing a struggle to recover popular support.

The ­Coalition primary vote i Queensland is at 36 per cent, more than seven points down since the last election. Picture: AAP

The Coalition’s political recovery in Queensland has stalled with the Turnbull government facing a struggle to recover popular support in the key battleground state with a general election less than 12 months away.

Pauline Hanson has also suffered a hit in her home state, with One Nation shedding almost a quarter of its primary vote in the past three months following ­infighting and mixed messaging on company tax cuts.

And the Greens continue to flag after posting a three-point loss in Victoria, traditionally their best performing state, following a failed campaign to win the seat of Batman in the March by-election.

A quarterly state-by-state analysis of Newspoll results ­between April and June shows Labor’s primary vote in ­Queensland at 38 per cent, a jump of more than seven points since the July 2016 election. The ­Coalition primary vote is at 36 per cent, more than seven points down since the last election.

NEWSPOLL: Full tables

But with less than three weeks to go until the five July 28 by-elections, including in Longman north of Brisbane, the Newspoll analysis shows Bill Shorten’s approval ratings in Queensland stuck at the lowest levels of any other mainland state. The analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, confirmed that the Coalition has continued to make ground on Labor nationally since the beginning of the year.

It has recorded its best quarterly two-party-preferred result since December 2016 and while Labor still leads, it does so on a ­reduced margin of 52-48.

The slow march back in the polls for the Coalition has come largely from a stunning bounce in South Australia since the state election in March ended 16 years of Labor rule.

For the first time in any state, it has improved on the 2016 federal election result, with a three-point primary vote gain to 37 per cent. While still trailing Labor in SA with a two-party-preferred split of 51-49, it marks a five-point gain since June last year.

The Coalition has also narrowed the gap in Western Australia, with a three-point primary vote gain to 42 per cent, leaving it level pegged at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. The Coalition has improved two points in NSW to 38 per cent and two points in Victoria to 39 per cent.

Mr Turnbull’s approval ratings have also continued to increase, having risen four points this quarter to the highest levels since February-March last year. His largest gains have been made in the bush.

The quarterly analysis, however, paints a grimmer picture for the Coalition in Queensland ahead of the federal election, which Mr Turnbull has said will be held in the first half of next year.

While not necessarily indicative of the state of play in Longman, the primary vote for the LNP has failed to move further since the last quarter result of 36 per cent.

While up on the record lows of 32 per cent late last year, at the height of the government’s citizenship fiasco and the same-sex marriage plebiscite debate, it is the lowest recorded for the Coalition in any of the mainland states. Mr Turnbull on Saturday ­issued a rallying call at a quasi-campaign launch for the Longman by-election, addressing the LNP’s state convention in Brisbane.

He called Mr Shorten a “liar” for running a campaign against the government based on the ­“Mediscare” campaign in 2016.

“He cannot tell the truth,’’ Mr Turnbull said. “There is no point being mealy-mouthed about this. He is a liar. It shows you the contempt the Labor Party has for the people of Longman. The people of Australia. The way they continually lie. And they believe that if you repeat the lie often enough some people will believe it.”

Despite the unpopularity of its leader, Labor in Queensland has picked up two points to 38 per cent primary support on the March quarter, which reflects levels not enjoyed since September 2015 and is two points clear of the LNP.

Conversely, Mr Turnbull continues to be most popular in Queensland, where he has consolidated his lead as preferred prime minister with a single-point rise to 45 per cent. The Labor leader fell a point to 31 per cent.

One Nation, however, stands to play a more significant role in the next election despite popular support for Senator Hanson’s party bouncing around since the election. The minor conservative party has suffered a three-point fall this quarter in Queensland to 10 per cent — which is a six-point decline since its highs of 16 per cent in the first and second quarters of last year — and a three-point drop in Western Australia.

However, it is still polling 7 per cent nationally, which is only two points behind the Greens and considerably better than the 1.3 per cent it attracted at the 2016 election. The fate of key marginal Queensland seats is likely to rest on One Nation’s preference flows.

On a national scale, the ­Coalition has averaged a losing two-party-preferred split of 53-47 for all but two of the quarterly poll reports since December 2016.