Turnbull’s stocks rise but over-55s hard to win back

Finally the political momentum appears to be with Malcolm Turnbull. But it is shifting at a glacial pace.

Finally the political momentum appears to be with Malcolm Turnbull. But it is shifting at a glacial pace.

The Coalition has lifted a point in each of the past three quarters but still trails Labor 48-52 on a two-party-preferred split.

The big unknown is whether this upward movement amounts to a trend and a slow drift back for the Liberal Party or a painfully prolonged false dawn.

The answer will be revealed in two of the coming by-elections: Braddon in Tasmania and Longman in Queensland.

If one were to pick a handful of marginal seats the Coalition had to win back if it were to hold office, these two seats would be among them. Officially they are at No 4 and No 9 in Labor’s marginal seat list.

There have been signs of steady gains in popular support for the Coalition across the board in the mainland states. In South Australia where 16 years of state Labor rule was brought to an end in March, it has miraculously lifted its primary vote above the 2016 election result.

But the government’s problem remains Queensland where the LNP is responsible for five of the Coalition’s top 11 marginal seats.

The Sunshine State is a delinquent state as far as the government is concerned.

Voters hate Bill Shorten but appear to hate the LNP more. And they are bipolar on Pauline Hanson.

While the LNP has managed to crawl out of the political quicksand it fell into last year when its primary vote collapsed to a record 32 per cent, it is only just hanging on to the vine at 36 per cent, the lowest of any state.

One Nation has also faded from its post-election highs of 16 per cent. The flame-haired firebrand’s party has dropped to 10 per cent this quarter.

The beneficiary of all this horse-trading of the conservative vote has been Labor, which has managed to increase its primary vote to 38 per cent — the highest it has been since mid-2015 — despite its leader having a net approval rating of minus 31.

Yet with One Nation’s popular support still twice that of the 2016 result, and consequently a larger pool of preferences in play, it would have to be beyond even the bravest psephologist to predict.

What is beyond doubt, however, is the demographic problem for the Turnbull government.

At 43 per cent, the over-55 age group — the Liberal party’s traditional base and a large numerical voting bloc — is seven points down from the election result and showing little sign of returning.