Newspoll: Labor takes early lead in race for May 3 election

The first polls of the election campaign have been released, showing it’s a very tight race but with one party just in front – but it’s not all good news.

The first Newspoll to be released during the election campaign has brought good news for Anthony Albanese, although it also includes strikingly poor ratings for last week’s budget.

The poll, published by The Australian on Sunday night, surveyed 1259 voters between March 27 and 29 – encompassing the immediate aftermath of the budget, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s budget reply and the day Mr Albanese called the election.

It shows Labor ahead of the Coalition, albeit by a narrow margin of 51 per cent to 49 on the two-party preferred measure. The government has gained a sliver of two percentage points over the past month.

This latest result is fuelled by a two-point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote, which now stands at 37 per cent. Labor’s primary vote stands at 33 per cent.

The Prime Minister’s net approval rating is still underwater at -9; 43 per cent of respondents said they approved of his performance with a majority of 52 per cent still disapproving.

He’s doing better than Mr Dutton though. The Liberal leader’s net rating is now at -18.

The broader message from this survey, though, is arguably widespread dissatisfaction with both major parties, as evidenced by the budget-related data.

The first polls of the election campaign are promising for Anthony Albanese, on the campaign trail in the electorate of Canberra with Labor MP Alicia Payne Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton fell behind on the preferred Prime Minister measure in the first Newspoll of the election campaign. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

Jim Chalmers’ budget, delivered last Tuesday, has very much fallen flat, with a mere 16 per cent of respondents saying they believe the measures included in it will help them, financially. That is reportedly the worst result for any budget in the past decade. At the same time only 38 per cent said the Coalition would have produced anything better.

The centrepiece of the budget was Labor’s “top-up” of previously passed tax cuts, which will give most Australians an extra $10 in their pockets each week, starting in a couple of years.

Jim Chalmers’ fourth budget did little to impress voters, according to the Newspoll. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Two other alarming numbers for Labor: only 22 per cent of voters believed the budget would be good for the Australian economy, the first time that number has been so low since the turn of the century.

And 32 per cent said it would be bad for the economy, a level not seen since the Abbott government’s horrendously unpopular budget in 2014-2015.

Mr Albanese on Sunday was keen to highlight that tax measure from the budget during his press conference in Canberra.

He’s been using it as a cudgel against Mr Dutton, who plans to repeal it, by claiming the Coalition would raise people’s income taxes.

Anthony Albanese said the buget showed that Labor wanted to cut income taxes, while the Coalition would raise them, Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

“We know that (Dutton) go to the election wanting to put up your income tax,” he said.

“We’ve said we’ve found room, even though the budget is under pressure, to top up the tax cuts of last year,” Mr Albanese said.

“He has said he will actually repeal them. He will take legislation to the parliament to raise every taxpayer’s income tax, should he win the election.

“Now, that is the risk we face.

“The Albanese government is focused on cost of living and helping you with those pressures. Or Peter Dutton, who wants to raise your income taxes.”

Meanwhile, two other polls released on Sunday showed Labor just in front.

YouGov MRP poll shows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a strong position to form an administration. Picture: YouGov

According to polling from YouGov MRP, Labor is just one seat short of forming a majority government, with the Coalition 16 seats short of the crucial number.

The forecast projected Mr Albanese securing 75 seats, with the Coalition on 60 – a stark drop from the 73 seats it was tipped to secure in a poll released in February.

The Resolve Political Monitor poll for the Nine newspapers shows the Labor and the Coalition on 50 per cent each.

But Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister, by 42 to 33 per cent.