Federal election live updates: Albo one seat short of majority in latest polling
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is closer than thought to forming a majority government, bombshell new polling has revealed.
With both major parties hurtling for a federal election on May 3, new polls have confirmed the race is tight, but Labor is just in front after the Coalition lost considerable headway.
The Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor leading the Coalition 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis at the start of the campaign, a two-point gane for the Albanese government in the past three weeks.
Labor’s primary vote has risen a point to 33 per cent, up from a low of 31 per cent in January and February, while the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen two points to 37 per cent.
Another poll is also favouring Labor.
According to polling from YouGov MRP, Labor is just one seat short of forming a majority government, with the Coalition 16 seats short of the crucial number.
The forecast projected Anthony Albanese securing 75 seats, with the Coalition on 60 – a stark drop from the 73 seats it was tipped to secure in a poll released in February.
Sunday’s polling also forecasted a 15-member cross bench would be formed with 11 independents, Two Greens, Kennedy MP Bob Katter and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie.
While Labor would lose five seats to the Coalition (Bennelong, Gilmore, Werriwa, Robertson and Lyons), the government was tipped in the polling to pick up Griffith and Brisbane from the Greens and Deakin from the Liberals.
Two prominent Liberal front benchers were also tipped to lose their seats.
The polling said Labor’s Matt Gregg was likely to boot Coalition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar in Melbourne’s Deakin.
Meanwhile, Climate 200 backed challenger and former Triple J host Alex Dyson was predicted to oust immigration spokesman Dan Tehan in Wannon, a seat in Victoria’s Grampian region.
Compared to the previous poll, conducted about six weeks before the latest data, Labor has made significant gains of 14 seats.
Previously the Coalition had been tipped to win 73 seats – just three away from a majority government.
YouGov MRP is the largest poll undertaken in the Federal Election, with 38,629 interviews conducted.
The polling assumptions were made by extrapolating characteristics and opinions from voters and then applying that data across all 155 electorates in play.
YouGov’s director of public data, Paul Smith, said this resulted in a 1.3 per cent swing and a turnaround of 10 key marginal seats the Coalition had been tipped to win in the last poll taken six weeks ago.
“This is a decisive change in the Australian political landscape – from a likely Coalition government in February to a likely Labor government now,” he said.
”As the election nears, the data points to a very dynamic campaign.”
Asked about the positive result for Labor, Anthony Albanese said his goal was to keep Labor’s current 78+ seat count, plus win “additional seats”.
”The previous polling showed we were on, I’m not sure what the number was, but it certainly wasn’t that,” he said.
“I may leave others to comment on polling.”
Meanwhile, the Resolve Political Monitor poll for the Nine newspapers shows the Labor and the Coalition on 50 per cent each.
But Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister, by 42 to 33 per cent.
DUTTON PLEDGES MONEY FOR MOSQUE
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton rounded out day two of campaigning with a Ramadan community event in Labor-held territory, this time in the south west Sydney seat of Macarthur.
It’s held by Mike Freelander on a healthy 9.9 per cent margin.
Mr Dutton greeted community leaders at Al Madinah Mosque in Leppington.
He announced the Coalition would commit $25,000 to improve the security facilities in the mosque, including the addition of security cameras on the site.
Community leaders told Mr Dutton they were “very conscious” of security and did not currently have the measures in place.
The election pit stop also coincides with the last day of Ramadan, before Eid celebrations begin on March 31.
Mr Dutton said he wanted the mosque to be a place where people could worship “safely”.
“I want people to be able to worship, to respect the views of others,” he said.
RARE MOMENT OF UNITY IN CAMPAIGN
Earlier in the day, Mr Dutton visited a community festival celebrating the Assyrian New Year on April 1 in Fairfield.
The Opposition Leader was guided on a frenzied street walk on Sunday afternoon, complete with dancers in cultural dress, swords, drums and a horn.
Joining the procession was federal energy minister Chris Bowen (who was representing Anthony Albanese), NSW Premier Chris Minns, Independent MP for Fowler Dai Le, and Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbonne, among many others.
It was a rare moment of unity in the campaign, with the Liberal leader flanked by Labor representatives, as well as Ms Le, an independent.
Assyrian National Council president Hermiz Shahen thanked Mr Dutton for allowing 12,000 Assyrian refugees to come into Australia in his former role as immigration minister.
He called on politicians to continue their commitment to “address the urgent situation of stranded Assyrians in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.
“We seek commitment from the Minister of Immigration to provide a pathway to safety for these vulnerable individuals,” he said.
The 2021 census found there were about 60,000 Australians with Assyrian heritage, with considerable communities in Sydney’s Western Sydney suburb of Fairfield and Melbourne’s north west in areas like Broadmeadows, Craigieburn and Meadow Heights.
Speaking afterwards, Mr Dutton described his decision to resettle the refugees from Syria and Iraq as one of the “proudest moments” he’s had in his political career.
“It was an opportunity to stand unified in a very special time and a very sad time,” he said.
“It was a significant time because we were in the process of providing people who have come out of war torn countries with an opportunity to live in the best country in the world.”
At the event, Mr Bowen confirmed an additional $30m had been funded under the Labor government for humanitarian support for Syrian minorities, with the funding equally split between people in Syria and Assyrians in Lebanon, Jordan and other countries who haven’t been able to leave.
“This is appropriate level of support for people who, in many cases, left Iraq many years ago seeking refuge in Syria and now have been driven out again,” he said.
‘TAKING THE P***’: ALBO’S BIG SUPERMARKET CALL
Kicking off the second day of the campaign, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited a home in Canberra, where he met a single mum along with her elderly mother, her two kids aged 11 and two, and most importantly the family’s dog Dante.
Speaking at a press conference in the family’s backyard – which was packed full with the travelling media pack – Mr Albanese and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher were both keen to talk about their new pledge to outlaw price gouging by the supermarkets.
The announcement got some pushback this morning, regarding the difficulty of defining what “gouging” actually is. To answer that criticism, Mr Albanese pointed to similar laws that already operate overseas.
”Overseas experience is that the pressure that is placed on supermarkets, by this law, makes a difference. To give you a definition, in the European Union a price is ‘unfair and excessive’ if, by their law, it has no reasonable relation to the economic value of the product,” he said.
”So there are examples, there, that we can use. And quite frankly – I got asked today by someone as well, ‘How do you know what is price gouging?’ Price gouging is when supermarkets are taking the piss (out of) Australian consumers. That’s what it is. Everyone out there knows. Consumers know we’ll take action.”
Pressed again to clearly define gouging, he was blunt.
“I just gave you one. I just gave an EU one. I gave a different, very colloquial Australian one,” said the Prime Minister.
Of course, “taking the piss” is not a legal term, and no Australian government has yet been colloquial enough to try inserting it into a law. The point here is that Labor intends to model its definition of gouging off those already in use overseas.
A short time later, a journalist pointed out that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s recent, long-awaited final report from its inquiry into the supermarkets found ours are highly profitable, by global standards – but it actually didn’t accuse them of price gouging. In fact it didn’t even mention gouging.
Other recent reports, such as those from the ACTU and a Senate Select Committee, frequently mentioned price gouging but offered scant supporting evidence – despite condemning other anti-competitive behaviour from the big supermarkets.
“I think that what they found was that there wasn’t systematic price gouging by supermarkets. What this does is it is a big stick that we intend to introduce, which we’re prepared to use,” Mr Albanese said this morning, referring specifically to the ACCC report (the one that didn’t mention the term at all).
The implicit question here is: if the supermarkets are not technically price gouging, is introducing a law banning it going to accomplish anything? Will it actually make grocery prices lower? The Prime Minister’s position is that gouging is, in fact, occurring.
The Coalition has been out and about today insisting Labor’s promise is empty.
“The Prime Minister is too weak to stand up to the big supermarkets and Australian families are going to pay the price,” Mr Littleproud said.
“You can do more reviews and change laws but unless there is a deterrent and a consequence for doing the wrong thing, then it’s business as usual for our supermarkets.
“The supermarkets don’t fear Anthony Albanese and in fact, it looks as though they control Anthony Albanese.”
ALBO CORNERS DUTTON ON TAX CUTS
Another question and answer of note, from that same press conference, concerned the announcement in the budget of what Anthony Albanese has been calling a “top-up” of the government’s previously enacted tax cuts.
This is the one that could see you eventually have another $10 a week in your pocket a couple of years from now, at a fairly chunky cost to the budget. Mr Albanese has been using it as a cudgel against Peter Dutton, who would repeal that new cut, accusing him of wanting to raise people’s income taxes.
Here’s a sample of that rhetoric, from Mr Albanese’s preamble this morning.
“We know that (Dutton) go to the election wanting to put up your income tax,” he said.
“We’ve said we’ve found room, even though the budget is under pressure, to top up the tax cuts of last year. He has said he will actually repeal them. He will take legislation to the parliament to raise every taxpayer’s income tax, should he win the election.
“Now, that is the risk we face. The Albanese government is focused on cost of living and helping you with those pressures. Or Peter Dutton, who wants to raise your income taxes.”
“One of the criticisms of both sides of politics on taxation is that both major parties are sort of fiddling around the edges on taxation. How seriously have you considered indexing the tax brackets?” a reporter asked Finance Minister Katy Gallagher.
“Look, on tax, we’ve found ways this term to make and put forward meaningful tax reform to the parliament. And Peter Dutton, I think, has voted no to all of them,” Ms Gallagher said.
“I think the changes that we’ve put in the budget, in this budget, just this past week actually helped deal with bracket creep, as well about returning bracket creep to working people, and we think that makes the difference.
“This is part of the Prime Minister’s focus, is how do we make sure that we can give lasting cost of living relief?”
So the critique here would be, instead of addressing bracket creep permanently, this government is doing the same thing most governments do: it’s giving a little bit of relief now that won’t solve the problem in the longer term – but will leave it with an opportunity to offer more, similar tax cuts in the future.
DUTTON TAKES CAMPAIGN TO LABOR HEARTLAND
Peter Dutton launched Sunday’s campaign efforts in Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s western Sydney electorate of McMahon on Sunday, which the Labor senior minister holds on a 10.5 per cent margin.
Spruiking the Coalition’s energy policy, the Opposition Leader visited local business Austral Bricks in Horsley Park.
For the second day, Mr Dutton refused to answer how much his gas policy would lower household energy bills by, and said further information would be revealed closer to the May 3 election.
The Opposition claims its national gas plan would reduce wholesale gas prices from $14 to $10 per gigajoule, and lower energy prices by the end of the year by directing more gas into Australia’s domestic energy grid.
The plan will boost east coast supplies by 50 to 100 petajoules of gas that would have otherwise been transported overseas.
“You’ll see some more analysis come out over the next couple of days, which will provide some percentage figures and some detail about what we expect the impact will be, and others will comment on that as well,” he said.
“At the moment, the government is choking the supply of natural gas into the economy, which is why Victoria is talking about importing gas from overseas into their country.”
TRUMP TARIFFS LOOM
US President Donald Trump loomed large in Sunday interviews, with the Prime Minister grilled on Australia’s relationship with the US ahead of what its President is calling “liberation day”, where a second round of tariffs is to be introduced.
Mr Albanese was forced to admit he did not yet know what would be in store for the nation come Wednesday in the US, telling Insiders only that his government had been “continuing to engage constructively with the US administration”.
“We are putting Australia’s case. Tariffs are an increase in price for the purchases of the goods and services, so they impose increased costs on American buyers,” he said.
“They don’t change the price structure here in Australia. We believe in free and fair trade. The US enjoys a trade surplus with Australia. We are pointing that out very clearly.”
The Prime Minister confirmed he was still yet to have a phone call with Mr Trump regarding the tariffs, telling Insiders communication was taking place only through officials.
He said he had been unable to speak with Mr Trump before the first round of tariffs were introduced because the US President “made a decision not to talk to anyone”.
Mr Albanese said officials were attempting to engage with the Trump administration on trade and that he would have a “one-on-one” with the President once an agreement was reached.
When asked whether Australia could rely on Mr Trump, Mr Albanese replied “I believe we can”.
“I’ve had two constructive discussions with Donald Trump and I will continue to engage constructively,” he said.
Mr Albanese denied he was trying to link Peter Dutton and Donald Trump.
“People will draw conclusions themselves when they see mass job cuts,” he said.
“He is talking here … about 41,000 public servants … There is no doubt that there will be consequences.”
PROTESTERS USED FAKE IDS, DUTTON CLAIMS
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has claimed protesters who crashed campaign events on Saturday were using “fake IDs” to access the venues.
Protesters appeared at three separate events held by Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, a sight not frequently seen during campaigns, where the locations and plans of each leader are typically tightly guarded.
Far-right commentator Laurence McIntyre threw questions on migration to the Prime Minister moments before a press conference in Brisbane on Saturday, while two interlopers from climate action group Rising Tide crashed two separate events attended by Mr Dutton.
Speaking to 2GB, Mr Dutton said most Australians would “see through” the protesters.
He alleged some of them had used “fake IDs” in order to get into venues, and said the AFP had done a “fantastic job” of dealing with them.
“The message that they’ve got is all about climate extremism, and I think most Australians would see through it,” he said.
“So I think it distracts for a little while from the main messages. But for us, it’s about getting a message out in relation to managing the economy.”
During Mr Dutton’s tour of Brisbane’s XXXX brewery, the Rising Tide protester managed to stand shoulder-to-shoulder alongside journalist while brandishing a cloth sign that read: No new gas or nuclear.
She was also wearing the high-vis vest given to journalists and staff.
A Rising Tide member also disrupted the Opposition Leader’s lunch with Chinese community leaders, appearing to enter the event through the public dining area.
On both occasions they were promptly escorted outside of the venue by AFP officers, however questions remain on how they tracked or were informed of the events.
BURKE RECEIVES VIDEO THREAT FROM PROTESTERS
Saturday’s protester chaos came one day after Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke was forced to cancel his appearance at a Muslim prayer event in western Sydney due to security concerns.
WhatsApp messages were reportedly circulated ahead of the event urging people to protest Mr Burke’s appearance, to “hold them to account and show them they are not welcome”.
Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare told Sky News Agenda that after Mr Burke left, a video was posted online “that basically threatened Tony Burke and said, come back here without the police”.
The video, shared to Facebook after the event on March 21, shows a man associated with a pro-Palestine protest group declaring Mr Burke was “not welcome in our community”.
Mr Clare said Australia was lucky to have a culture where members of the public could interact with leaders freely, but that there needed to be respect shown.
“The nature of Australia, if you’re a politician or a contender, is you stand there,” he said.
“People will come up to you. If they like you, they’ll have a chat. If they don’t, they’ll mumble something I can’t repeat on Sky News, or they’ll cross the road just to avoid talking to you.
“But you don’t get the sort of stuff that we’ve seen overseas.”
ALBO DODGES POWER BILL QUESTION SIX TIMES
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dodged repeated questions on whether energy bill rebates will be extended at the end of the year, when they are set to end.
Labor announced the measure would stay in place until the end of the year, worth about $150 per household, in Tuesday’s federal budget.
Appearing on ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Mr Albanese was repeatedly asked if the rebate would be extended at the end of the year should Labor be returned to power at the federal election, or if Australians should prepare for an increase in their bills.
The Prime Minister was asked six times if power bills would go up when the rebate was set to expire, and declined to answer each time.
“We very consciously, have provided now three lots of energy relief,” Mr Albanese said.
“The first was in partnership with that gas and coal cap on prices. We provided money for people who are concession card holders. Then we provided a second lot of relief of $300.
We are extending that to every household and every small business by $150.
“What you have had is the biggest energy crisis globally since the 1970s. That is something that we have had to deal with on our watch and dealt with in a practical way.”
“I’m asking, I think a lot of households want to know what will happen to their power bill and what happens at the end this year,” host David Speers said in one of his six attempts to have the Prime Minister answer the question.
“The Government hasn’t produced any sort of nod or indication of what will happen with energy prices if you are returned?”
“What we are providing is $150 relief extending that relief going forward to the end of the year,” Mr Albanese replied.
POWER BILL QUESTION COALITION WON’T ANSWER
Coalition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien similarly refused to give a dollar figure on how much power bills will drop if his party is elected and Peter Dutton’s gas plan is implemented in his own interview on Sunday.
The Coalition has vowed to lower east coast energy bills by diverting gas which would have been exported offshore into Australia’s energy grid.
In his budget reply on Thursday, the Opposition Leader said a Coalition government would implement a National Gas Plan, and immediately introduce an “east coast gas reservation” which would secure and additional 10 to 20 per cent of NSW and Victoria’s gas needs. “
Gas sold on the domestic market will be decoupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks, and this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under $10 per gigajoule.”
Mr Dutton has so far not given a dollar amount that this plan would drop household power bills by, and when repeatedly pressed on Sky News, Mr O’Brien declined to comment as well, saying only that modelling would be released “over the course of the campaign”.
“What does that mean for the punter, for the small business for the householder,” Sky News host Andrew Clennell asked.
“So when it comes to that modelling that’ll be released, but it’s clear that it is far cheaper than what Labor has planned, and it is good news to the punter,” Mr O’Brien responded, before he was cut off by Mr Clennell.
“Why can’t you just tell me how much? Why are we waiting for the release of some modelling?” he hit back.
“If you make a promise like that, shouldn’t you say your bills are going down 10 per cent, 30 per cent roughly 5 per cent? Can’t you just say that?”
Mr O’Brien said the situation was similar when the Coalition’s nuclear plan was announced, but said people continued to ask more questions after one was answered.
Senator James Paterson, who is acting as the Coalition’s campaign spokesman, also refused to answer direct questions about power bills when he appeared on Insiders on Sunday.
Mr Paterson said “we’re not hiding”, but that there would not be a dollar figure added to the plan in the wake of a Labor promise made at the last election.
“We won’t make the same mistake that Anthony Albanese did before the election when he lied to the Australian people 97 times and told them their electricity would go down $275,” he told Insiders.
“That is not the experience of Australians on this Government’s watch. They are paying up to $1300 more for the election than the Prime Minister promised. We won’t mislead them.”
Add your comment to this story
New details aired after ex-detainee shot
Footage of the moment a former immigration detainee was shot by police has been played as he seeks to be released back into the community.
Surprising call on next Qld hit man
Brendan Piakura is fighting to break into the Brisbane starting side but he’s an Origin player of the future, according to Maroons great Cooper Cronk.
To join the conversation, please log in. Don't have an account? Register
Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout