Bill can breathe easy if polls are reliable

Local resident Toni Lea (left) has a run-in with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Trevor Ruthenberg in Longman on Friday.

If the polls are accurately reflected in today’s key by-elections of Longman and Braddon, it will be good news for Bill Shorten.

A win is a win is a win.

The electorates are in the top 10 marginal Labor-held seats. They were surprise wins at the last election and any suggestion Labor should have increased their margins for these by-elections, considering the fiasco that triggered them, is fantasy.

There remains a distinct possibility that the LNP could pick up Longman but the polls suggest this is now unlikely.

The latest Newspoll points towards a status quo result, with the two-party-preferred vote landing at 51-49 to Labor in both seats, reflecting the national consensus on both parties.

The poll numbers should raise concerns for the Coalition.

While the Liberals have improved on their primary vote in Braddon, it does not appear to be enough to get them over the line. This suggests that Malcolm Turnbull has yet to master a big-picture strategy to counter Shorten’s class-war narrative.

Longman presents a unique but equally troubling issue.

The LNP has an obvious structural weakness that allowed failed Newman government MP Trevor Ruthenberg to win preselection without the proper due diligence, which would have exposed and rectified the military medal fiasco before it became a disaster.

The other is a greater dilemma. The LNP clearly has not worked out a strategy to deal with One Nation. Pauline Hanson’s vote is still five points higher than the last election.

Of course, if the Coalition wins both seats then Shorten’s leadership will be cooked, the LNP will be heroic and anything else will be over-analysis.