Make-or-break test for Shorten

Bill Shorten’s future as Labor ­leader could turn on the result in today’s Longman by-election.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten

Bill Shorten’s future as Labor ­leader could turn on the result in today’s Longman by-election, which is seen by party power­brokers as a litmus test for the ALP’s likely performance in a string of key Queensland seats at the upcoming federal election.

Key Labor factions, including the all-important NSW Right, are reserving their judgment on whether Mr Shorten should be replaced by rival Anthony Albanese until Super Saturday by-election results are known.

Senior Labor sources said losing either Longman or Braddon in northwest Tasmania would place pressure on Mr Shorten’s leadership, but the Longman result would figure more prominently in the internal calculations that would follow today’s electoral test.

A senior NSW Right source said the faction continued to back Mr Shorten, but that could change. “The NSW Right is always the pragmatic group. It takes the view that we need to win, and lots of people are relying on us to win. It’s loyalty to the party. If the NSW Right came to the view that we couldn’t win with Shorten, of course there would be a conversation.”

The source said: “Longman is a litmus test. It’s a measure of how we are faring in Queensland. On the other side of that coin of course is it was never really our seat.”

A left-faction source backed the assessment, saying Longman was representative of a range of Queensland seats where One Nation, or “none of the above”, voters were likely to play a crucial role.

Labor holds several Queensland seats by narrow margins, including Herbert and Griffith; and needs to win knife-edge Coalition-held electorates like Capricornia, Forde, Flynn and Petrie.

As Mr Shorten avoided voters and television cameras yesterday, his supporters sought to play down Longman’s significance, noting the seat had been taken by Labor only twice in eight elections, and that candidate Susan Lamb won in 2016 on One Nation preferences.

Mr Albanese, in one of several media appearances yesterday, repeated that he was not seeking the party’s leadership. “What I’m doing is working as part of Bill Shorten’s team. And we are a team,” he told the Nine Network. “What I want is for Labor to be in government and to play a role in that team. I’m a team player.”

But Albanese supporters suggested Mr Shorten would be judged harshly if either seat was lost, noting it had been 98 years since a government had won a seat from an opposition in a by-election.

They also pointed to the 5.5 per cent average swing against governments in by-elections, suggesting Mr Shorten would need emphatic wins in both seats.

Ms Lamb received a boost yesterday when Brisbane Catholic Education endorsed Labor’s commitment to restoring their funding levels. LNP candidate Trevor ­Ruthenberg’s own goal, when he wrongly claimed to have earned an Australian Service Medal, could also assist Ms Lamb as she defends a 0.8 per cent margin.

In Braddon, Labor’s Justine Keay is up against former local MP Brett Whiteley, who she beat in 2016 by a margin of 2.2 per cent.

Labor MPs have been nervous, with Malcolm Turnbull extending his lead as preferred prime minister in recent Newspolls.