Smooth sailing for John Brumby after cutting free from Rudd anchor

VICTORIA has cemented itself as the nation's Labor state.

VICTORIA has cemented itself as the nation's Labor state.

The popularity of the Brumby government has increased significantly since dropping to 18-year lows during the last days of Kevin Rudd's tenure.

Despite Julia Gillard's disastrous campaign for the federal election, which has produced a hung parliament, the latest Newspoll figures show that this has not had a negative effect on Labor in Victoria.

The polling, conducted exclusively for The Australian this month and last, shows that Labor's primary vote has increased from 34 per cent to 38 per cent and the Coalition vote has dropped from 40 per cent to 36 per cent since the previous survey. The Greens vote has remained largely unchanged at 17 per cent.

Labor's gains are also apparent in its lead on two-party-preferred terms. In the May-June survey, Labor led 51 per cent to 49 per cent, but now holds a 55-45 lead. Labor won the 2006 state election with 54.4 per cent of the vote to the Coalition's 45.6 per cent.

The state result will further anger Labor powerbrokers in Victoria who claim they were ignored by the party during the federal election campaign at a cost of up to two seats for the Gillard government.

But the figures are crushing for the state Liberals just three months away from an election, as their primary vote has dropped four points to 32 per cent and Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu's popularity has decreased.

Only 39 per cent of the 1157 people surveyed by Newspoll between July 1 and August 15 were satisfied with how Mr Baillieu was doing his job, down from 43 per cent in June.

The figure has not been this low since last August and is much worse than the 46 per cent Mr Baillieu had just days before he lost the 2006 election to Steve Bracks.

The news is worse for the Opposition Leader when it comes to preferred premier, with his rating dropping from 31 per cent to 27. By comparison, 52 per cent believe John Brumby would be the better premier, up from 47 per cent in June. It is the strongest support he has had this year.

Mr Brumby, who blamed Mr Rudd and "issues across Australia" for his government's poor performance in the previous Newspoll, also received a boost in his own satisfaction ratings, whichrose from 45 per cent to 48 per cent.

His dissatisfaction rating dropped from 45 per cent to 41 per cent. In April, Mr Brumby became the first premier since Labor was elected in 1999 to have a negative net satisfaction rating.

This followed criticism that he was not listening to voter concerns on law and order problems, the much maligned Myki ticketing system and a public transport network that could not keep up with the growing population.

Mr Brumby had also just engaged in a public stoush with Mr Rudd over the reform of the health system and hospital funding.

Despite the encouraging news for the government, whose primary vote had been on the slide since since February last year, the Greens remain a threat when the state goes to the ballot box on November 27.

Many considered the May-June Newspoll, in which the Greens vote jumped from a stable 14 per cent to 18 per cent, a protest vote against Mr Rudd and assumed the figure would fall after Ms Gillard became Prime Minister. Instead, support for the third party only dropped one point to 17 per cent.

This means the Greens are now a serious rival to Labor in the four inner-city seats - Brunswick, Melbourne, Richmond and Northcote - that overlap with the federal seat of Melbourne, which was secured by Greens candidate Adam Bandt last Saturday.

If the Greens did win these seats, Mr Brumby would lose two ministers: Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and Housing Minister Richard Wynne.

Newspoll also shows that Labor's increased support has come not from clawing back the Greens vote but rather from the Liberals. The Nationals' primary vote has remained at the same level of 4 per cent.

Victoria recorded a swing to Labor in the federal election and was the only state where the ALP secured seats from Liberal MPs, gaining La Trobe and McEwen.

Labor insiders have complained about the lack of funding and specific policies aimed at Victoria during the campaign, with Ms Gillard hardly coming to the state. Some say the seats of Aston and Dunkley could have been secured by Labor if they had had greater support.