Julia Gillard factor a plus for John Brumby

JULIA Gillard has helped turn around the fortunes of John Brumby's team even though she might not have saved her own.

The Victorian Premier had no hesitation in publicly blaming Kevin Rudd in June when Newspoll showed his government had received the worst primary vote for 18 years.

He hoped the brutal rise of a Victorian to the top job might stop his downward spiral and his party bleeding votes to the Greens.

Brumby was right about Rudd. Now the Queenslander has gone, Labor's vote in Victoria has jumped back from 34 per cent to 38 per cent.

This result - on top of the swing towards Labor in Victoria in the federal election despite the disastrous outcome of a hung parliament - proves how left of centre the state has become.

But Brumby is still a long way off Labor's 2006 election-winning primary vote of 43 per cent. And more significantly, he still has to deal with the Greens.

The jump in the Greens vote in June to 18 per cent was initially dubbed a protest vote but it has not gone away. The Greens are now a real problem for Labor on November 27, and they have the potential to pick up four inner-city seats and claim two ministers.

The election of Adam Bandt in the seat of Melbourne on August 21 would have done nothing to ease these fears.

But the problems Brumby and his decade old government face are nothing compared with the woes of his main opponent.

After more than four years as Opposition Leader, Ted Baillieu has failed to make an impression on Victorians.

His satisfaction rating is 39 per cent after dropping from 43 per cent in June, his highest ever during his long tenure as leader.

The gap between Baillieu and Brumby as preferred premier has widened to 25 points and the Liberal primary vote has also dropped. It is clear that despite the dire straits Labor is in at the federal level and a tired state government, Baillieu has failed to capitalise on voter disenchantment with Labor, unlike his counterparts across the country.

With only three months to the election, he is fast running out of time to do so.