Newspoll: same-sex support grows as survey deadline looms

The campaign for same-sex marriage has gained ground in the final weeks of the postal survey.

Support for same-sex marriage has climbed from 59 to 62 per cent among those who have ­already cast their votes.

The campaign for same-sex marriage has gained ground in the final weeks of the postal survey on the contentious reform, with support climbing from 59 to 62 per cent among those who have ­already cast their votes.

A special Newspoll shows a strong response to the survey across all age groups over the past two weeks, with 76 per cent of voters saying they have already sent in their forms and a further 10 per cent saying they will “definitely” do so.

While the No campaign made a strong start in the early weeks of the survey, it has slipped to 35 per cent support among those who have already voted, down from 38 per cent two weeks ago.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday confirmed that 12.3 million people had voted in the survey, taking the voter turnout to 77 per cent.

The ABS said it had received an extra 400,000 survey forms in the week to October 27. Campaigners are fighting for the final votes ahead of the November 7 deadline for forms to be received.

The special Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows support for same-sex marriage has edged up from 56 to 59 per cent across all voters, whether they had filled in their forms or not. Support for the No case has slipped from 37 to 35 per cent in overall terms since the Newspoll published on October 18.

Advocates for traditional marriage have stepped up their advertising campaign with warnings about threats to religious freedom if marriage equality is legislated, but today’s poll shows they face an impossible task.

 

With three-quarters of the votes already cast, the No campaign would have to secure about 97 per cent of all the remaining votes to achieve a slim majority in the overall count and defeat marriage equality.

Acting Prime Minister Julie Bishop this week declared she expected the survey to show majority support for change in an official result that would clear the way for a reform bill to pass the parliament.

Queensland LNP MP Warren Entsch told The Australian he was determined to introduce a same-sex marriage bill and would cut short his secondment to the ­UN in New York to return to Australia in time for the final sitting fortnight of parliament.

“At one point early in the process I argued, irrespective of the outcome, I’d challenge the integrity of a postal plebiscite, but you can’t argue with even a 75 per cent outcome,” he said.

“At this point in time I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of a good 60 per cent Yes votes, but that’s an uneducated guess.”

Mr Entsch said he expected legislation to be based on WA Liberal senator Dean Smith’s private member’s bill.

“I welcome anybody who wants to introduce amendments,” Mr Entsch said in response to calls for religious protections.

Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar said he could not see any great impediment to getting legislation through very swiftly, provided it had the necessary protections.

He said Senator Smith’s bill would not sufficiently protect religious freedoms. “I have looked at Senator Smith’s bill and in my view it doesn’t contain the full suite of protections that many of our voters would expect, but, like all these things, these sorts of bills will be negotiated through the parliament, not even negotiated within a particular party but negotiated through the parliament and it’ll be the will of the parliament at the end of the day that shapes whatever bill,” Mr Sukkar told Sky News.

The Newspoll survey of 1623 voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday and has a margin of error of 2.5 per cent. A late surge from younger voters is one of the trends revealed, with 69 per cent of those aged 18-34 saying they had already voted — up from 57 per cent two weeks earlier. The response from those aged 35-49 grew by a similar amount, from 63 to 75 per cent, and there were similar gains in older age groups. The strongest response rate is among those aged over 65.