Newspoll analysis: Morrison struggles to regain grey vote

Older Australians have delivered an early blow to Scott Morrison’s pitch to win back their support before the election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison suffered a decline in satisfaction ratings in the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis. Picture: AAP

Older Australians have delivered an early blow to Scott Morrison’s pitch to win back their support before next year’s federal election, with 45 per cent of voters aged 50 and older declaring they are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance.

Despite achieving an initial boost in support from older voter­s, who had never strongly endorsed Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister, Mr Morrison ­suffered a decline in satisfaction ratings in the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis.

Josh Frydenberg is trying to fight a rearguard action on Labor’s “retiree tax” and negative gearing policies, but the government’s efforts did not result in a polling boost before the summer break.

The inability of the federal government to lock in the votes of baby boomers — who have ­become disillusioned with both major parties, prompting some to shift their support to minor partie­s — will be the most concernin­g revelation for Liberal and Nationals strategists in the latest Newspoll data.

 

The quarterly analysis, covering late October to this month and conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows that almost one in two voters older than 50 would vote for the Coalition or Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, with only 37 per cent locking in behind Labor.

The shift of support to One Nation, which had a 9 per cent primary vote among those 50 and older, compared with 1.8 per cent immediately before the 2016 election, could put at risk the Libera­l National Party’s hold on seats in the battleground state of Queensland. This would toughen Mr Morrison’s job of clawing back Labor’s lead in the polls befor­e the likely May election.

Bill Shorten also faces a damn­ing report card from older Australians, with only 31 per cent satisfied with his performance and 59 per cent issuing a negative appraisal of his tenure as Opposition Leader. However, this is Mr Shorten's best ­satisfaction rating from voters aged 50 and older in the past 12 months.

On the primary vote, the ­Coalition edges Labor 40 to 37 in the 50 and older voter category.

Off the back of early childhood and education policies aimed at younger families, Mr Shorten’s Labor continues to dominate the 18-34 and 35-49 age categories, amassing a sizeable lead in the primary vote over the Coalition.

 

There has been a significant spike in dissatisfaction with Mr Morrison in the 35-49 age segment, with 48 per cent saying they were unhappy with his performance, up from 42 per cent in the ­August-to-October analysis.

The same voter group rated 50 per cent dissatisfied and only 36 per cent satisfied with Mr Shorten’s job as Opposition Leader.

On gender breakdown, 43 per cent of men declared they were satisfied with Mr Morrison’s performance as Prime Minister, compared with 39 per cent of women. There were 46 per cent of men and 44 per cent women who were dissatisfied with his performance.

Mr Shorten continues to struggle with female voters, 49 per cent of whom are dissatisfied with his performance compared with 34 per cent who are satisfied. Fifty-two per cent of male voters rated Mr Shorten’s performance as dissatisfactory, while 38 per cent were satisfied with him.

 

Asked to compare the two leaders directly, Mr Morrison holds a large lead over Mr Shorten on the question of who would be the better prime minister among those aged 50 and over, 50 per cent to 32 per cent, and a narrow lead, 42-36, with 35-to-49-year-olds.

Men and women both rate Mr Morrison the better prime minister. Mr Morrison had a 10-point lead with women, 43-33, and an eight-point lead with men, 45-37.

After losing support from older Australians over superannuation changes, the Coalition has attempted to heap pressure on Mr Shorten over what it describes as a “retiree tax”, a major revenue-raising measure announced by Labor to scrap the refundable tax credits on shares.

The system of cash refunds, implemented in the 2001 budget, allows super funds and individuals to receive payments from the Australian Taxation Office if their dividend imputation credits exceed their total tax liabilities. Labor’s plan to scrap the refunds would raise $55.7 billion over a decade from next July but was initially estimated to raise $59bn before Mr Shorten was forced to carve out pensioners from the crackdown following a backlash from seniors groups.

 

Mr Shorten’s so-called pensioner guarantee means that government pensioners and ­allowance recipients will be protected from the abolition of cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits if he wins the next election.

The biggest target of the Labor policy is self-funded retirees. Estimates suggest that about 33 per cent of cash refunds go to individuals, 60 per cent to self-managed super funds and about 7 per cent to APRA-regulated funds.

The Coalition has tried to garner support off the back of its campaign against the dividend imputations reform, targeting key electorates with older voters.

Another major revenue-raiser that has unsettled older voters is Labor’s negative gearing policy, which will see Mr Shorten limit the concession to new housing stock if he wins office — a move estimated to raise $20bn over the decade.

The plan to halve the capital gains discount is also thought to raise about $13bn over the same period, with the measures fuelling concerns they will exacerbate an already softening housing market.