Coalition still trails Labor but Turnbull extends as preferred PM

Despite some wins to end the year, including the Bennelong by-election, the Coalition has failed to gain any ground on Labor.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has had plenty of reasons to smile in the last fortnight. Picture: AAP

Cost of living is set to become the critical political contest in 2018, with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten locked in a neck-and-neck electoral battle over who is best able to deliver relief for middle-class families.

While the government has maintained its dominance as the better economic manager and is more trusted to deliver tax cuts, the Prime Minister has yet to convince voters that the Coalition is better placed than Labor to deliver on a promise to reduce the cost-of-living burden.

Having secured a critical victory in the Bennelong by-election, Mr Turnbull heads to the summer break with the Labor leader forced into partial retreat and the government’s parliamentary majority intact.

However, the final Newspoll of the year, conducted exclusively for The Australian, confirms that Mr Turnbull faces an uphill battle at a national level with the Coalition trailing Labor on an unchanged two-party-preferred vote of 53-47.

While the Coalition will take comfort in its continued dominance on critical election issues — the economy, national security, tax relief and border protection — Labor has for the first time edged ahead of the government on which party is more capable of delivering on cost-of-living pressures.

The poll conducted at the weekend of the by-election — ­December 14-17 — suggests the passage of the same-sex-marriage laws and the scandal over Labor senator Sam Dastyari have washed over voters, failing to produce a lift for the government.

While Mr Turnbull has maintained a lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, the ­Coalition has not made any further gains since a two-point rise in the previous Newspoll — from the two-party-preferred low point of 45-55 — following the announcement of a banking royal commission on November 28.

The Coalition’s primary vote remained at a critically low 36 per cent, a six-point drop on the 2016 election result and still one point lower than Labor. One ­Nation has continued to slide back from its high of 10 per cent recorded in mid-November to 7 per cent in the latest poll. This follows a worse than expected result in the recent Queensland election. The Greens remained stable at 10 per cent.

When asked who was more capable of handling the economy, 51 per cent nominated Mr Turnbull. Despite a three-point jump on the same time last year, it is a seven-percentage-point fall since February 2016 — six months after Mr Turnbull took over the Liberal leadership.

Mr Shorten on the other hand, while significantly behind on this measure at 31 per cent, has enjoyed a nine-point lift over the same ­period suggesting that his attacks on the government’s corporate tax cuts are finding a receptive ear in parts of the electorate.

More than twice as many ­people nominated Mr Turnbull as a more capable manager of ­national security. He led Mr Shorten by 53 to 25 points, confirming that the issue remained a significant weakness for the opposition.

Mr Turnbull, unsurprisingly, continued to hold a similar lead over Mr Shorten on border protection and the handling of asylum-seekers with 52 per cent of voters believing he was more capable compared with 28 per cent backing Mr Shorten.

This represented a four percentage-point increase for the government since May 2016 and a three percentage-point rise for the opposition. Significantly, it also represented a one-point advantage for Mr Turnbull over Tony Abbott who was credited with being the architect of the government’s tough border protection policy and a four-percentage-point fall in trust on the issue for Mr Shorten compared with Julia Gillard.

On delivering tax cuts, 40 per cent believed Mr Turnbull more capable compared with 33 per cent for Mr Shorten.

But when it came to living costs, Mr Shorten has pulled ahead of Mr Turnbull for the first time in more than a year. The Prime Minister fell two points since May 2016 to 41 per cent while Mr Shorten jumped five to 43 per cent.

The poll surveyed 1669 voters across all states and territories. The margin of error is 2.4 per cent.