Longman by-election: Trevor Ruthenberg poised for historic win, according to new poll

Longman’s LNP candidate poised to deliver Malcolm Turnbull a once-in-a-century victory on Super Saturday, new poll suggests.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with the LNP candidate for Longman, Trevor Ruthenberg at the Caboolture Sports Football Club on Saturday.

Trevor Ruthenberg appears to have survived a false military medal scandal unscathed, with new polling numbers suggesting the LNP candidate in Longman is poised to deliver Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a historic once-in-a-century by-election victory on Super Saturday.

The LNP is on track to win 51 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in Longman, according to a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Queensland’s Sunday Mail.

Mr Turnbull was in Longman yesterday to defend the integrity of Mr Ruthenberg, who apologised to voters after he incorrectly claimed to have a medal for distinguished service in peacekeeping and non-war operations.

The revelation sparked calls from Labor for the prime minister to sack Mr Ruthenberg.

But more than 40 per cent of poll respondents said they believed he had made an “honest mistake", as Mr Ruthenberg’s primary vote jumped more than two percentage points to 37.9 per cent, ahead of Labor candidate Susan Lamb, who’s vote slumped nearly four percentage points to 35.8 per cent just a week out from the July 28 by-election.

Mr Turnbull said “Big Trev” had his full support, and that Labor’s claims smacked of hypocrisy given that Ms Lamb, who is recontesting the seat, was forced to quit parliament over the dual-citizenship saga.

“Really the Labor Party should be looking at themselves,” he said. “They had Susan Lamb sitting in the parliament there for months and months and months, getting paid at the taxpayers expense, when they knew she wasn’t eligible to sit in the Parliament.”

Mr Turnbull, who spent the morning at the Caboolture Sports Football Club, conceded the by-election would be a tough one to win.

“It’s a by-election in an opposition-held seat and the last time a government won one of those was about 100 years ago, so Trev’s got the odds against him,” he said.

“But he’s a great candidate, he’s a straight shooter, he’s as honest as he is big (and) he and he alone can deliver for the people of Longman.”

Labor candidate for the seat of Longman Susan Lamb at Caboolture TAFE on July 10.

LAMB ‘JUST HASN’T FRONTED’

Mr Turnbull has described the by-election as a ­“contest … between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader”. Mr Shorten is expected to arrive in ­Longman today.

If Mr Ruthenberg were to win next Saturday, Longman would be the first opposition-held seat to fall to a government at a by-election in 98 years.

Mr Ruthenberg has seized upon Ms Lamb’s non-­attendance at an Australian Christian Lobby candidates’ forum on Thursday night, at which five of her rivals spoke.

The LNP and One Nation also criticised Ms Lamb for not participating in two ABC radio panels this week. “She just hasn’t fronted,” Mr Ruthenberg said. “I’ve been around, I’ve been out … I’ve been facing the tough questions.”

A spokesman for Ms Lamb said she had attended other events while having a “full campaign diary”, and had told the ABC “days in advance” she would be unable to participate in one of the panel discussions. “She has already attended a public candidate forum this week, and will be attending more next week,” the spokesman said.

Ms Lamb appeared alongside other candidates at a forum on early learning at Caboolture on Wednesday. But One Nation, which has directed preferences away from Labor in Longman, referred to a “a ­silence of the Lamb”.

Its spokeswoman said she should have taken part in the ABC and ACL ­forums because “you need to talk about the issues” of voters, including abortion.

The ACL’s Wendy Francis said her absence was “unfortunate”. One Nation released its latest attack ad against Labor yesterday, claiming a “vote for Bill Shorten is a vote for slave Labor” and he “couldn’t give a stuff about workers”.

— with Mark Schliebs and AAP