Longman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win

THE Turnbull Government is on track to win Saturday’s crucial Longman by-election, with local voters accepting the LNP candidate’s false military medal claim was just a mistake.

• PM ambushed
• Counterattack
• Medal muddle

THE Turnbull Government is on track to win Saturday’s crucial Longman by-election, with local voters accepting LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg’s false military medal claim was just a mistake.

An exclusive ReachTEL poll for The Sunday Mail shows the LNP netting 51 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to Labor’s 49 per cent ahead of the final week of campaigning before the poll.

Mr Ruthenberg’s chances threatened to be derailed last week after revelations he had claimed he was awarded an Australian Service Medal rather than the lesser Australian Defence Medal.

But today’s poll suggests “Big Trev” has survived, reviving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s hopes of snatching the seat from Labor.

Mr Ruthenberg’s primary vote has increased to 37.9 per cent, from 35.5 per cent in a poll published on June 28.

Support for Labor’s Susan Lamb has fallen from 39 per cent to 35.8 per cent over the past three weeks.

Ms Lamb sparked the by-election – one of five to be held around the country on “Super Saturday” – when she was forced to resign after failing to renounce her British citizenship.

The poll puts One Nation candidate Matthew Stephens at 13.9 per cent of the first-preference vote.

The majority of One Nation’s preferences are expected to flow to the LNP.

The poll shows over two-thirds of Longman voters believe Mr Ruthenberg’s military claim in his public biography was an error, not a lie.

Some 40.6 per cent described it as an “honest mistake” and another 26.9 per cent saw it as a “careless mistake”.

A third felt the LNP candidate purposely claimed the more prestigious medal.

Mr Turnbull was yesterday in the electorate, which includes Caboolture and Bribie Island, describing Mr Ruthenberg as an outstanding candidate, a community leader and a man of enormous integrity.

A win next weekend will deliver a historic victory to the Prime Minister.

“It’s a by-election in an opposition-held seat, and the last time the government won one of those was about 100 years ago, so Trev’s got the odds against him,” Mr Turnbull said.

“But he’s a great candidate, he’s a straight shooter, he’s as honest as he is big, and he and he alone can deliver for the people of Longman.”

Losing Longman would be a dagger to the aspirations of Labor leader Bill Shorten ahead of the next federal election, with the ALP desperately needing to win seats in Queensland to secure power.

The LNP yesterday continued to make the by-election a battle between party leaders.

It launched “scratchie” cards, entitled “Shorten’s Labor Lottery” and featuring pictures of Ms Lamb.

When she is rubbed out, it reveals Mr Shorten and slogans such as “800-plus illegal boats”, and “$200 billion higher taxes” and “retirement tax”.

“A vote for Susan Lamb is a vote for Bill Shorten. It’s very, very clear,” Mr Turnbull said. “Bill Shorten is a threat to the economy. He is a threat to the safety of our borders. He is a threat to our migration system.

“He is a threat to every business and family because he stands for higher taxes and higher energy prices and, as a result of that, you see less investment, fewer jobs and lower wages.”

Labor senator Murray Watt said: “I can tell you that this by-election is going to be won street by street, house by house, vote by vote.

“Now I think that the people in Longman are getting pretty sick of Mr Turnbull jumping on his jet up from Point Piper, throwing a few insults around at Bill Shorten, cutting the local hospitals while he’s at it, and then jumping back on his plane and heading back to Point Piper.”

The scratchie being distributed by the LNP in Longman

Shorten claims underdog status

LABOR leader Bill Shorten is claiming underdog status as his party strives to win over voters in the final push for Longman.

Officially launching Susan Lamb’s campaign at the Caboolture RSL this morning, Mr Shorten will tell supporters: “We’re in a tough fight and there’s no doubt we’re the underdogs. The bookies have got the other mob as ­favourites.”

Mr Shorten, who will be joined at the launch by his Queenslander wife Chloe and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, says: “If you vote One Nation, you get the LNP.

“The LNP and One Nation have teamed-up to support each other, support the banks and support a $2.9 million cut to the Caboolture Hospital.

“It is a fact that One Nation lines-up and votes with the LNP 90 per cent of the time down in Canberra.”

Mr Shorten’s fifth visit to Longman in the run-up to the by-election will focus on Labor’s promise to invest in health care.

Meanwhile, new welfare recipients would be up to $550 a year better off if Labor wins the next federal election, with Mr Shorten vowing to keep a cash bonus designed to help vulnerable Australia’s pay their power bills.

The Turnbull Government wants to scrap the energy supplement, worth $14 extra each fortnight for single pensioners, people with a disability, carers and Newstart recipients.

New modelling by the Parliamentary Budget Office, provided to The Sunday Mail, shows that about 592,000 aged pensioners alone will miss out on extra cash by 2020-21, rising to more than 1.5 million in 2028-29.