US to pledge new target but few followers ahead of Glasgow

The danger for Australia is becoming a lightening rod for disappointment

Joe Biden’s biggest challenge at his climate summit is to manage down expectations. Picture: AFP

Forget net-zero by 2050 the new climate mantra is set to become halfway by 2030.

This is the target — a 50 per cent cut to emissions by the end of this decade — that US President Joe Biden is expected to announce on a zoom meeting with 40 world leaders scheduled for Thursday.

Mr Biden and his climate envoy, John Kerry, has managed to get Japan and Canada on board with a similar declaration, and possibly South Korea at a later date, but beyond that the biggest challenge for the summit is to manage down expectations.

China has agreed to keep talking to the US and for each to develop a plan to achieve promises that have already been made. In the meantime, China is pushing ahead with construction of new coal-fired power stations.

Greenpeace says more coal capacity was approved in China last year than in the three previous years combined.

India, too, has told US climate envoy John Kerry it is sticking with coal as the cheapest option for energy and expects the developed world to do more, particularly on providing finance. Brazil is reportedly negotiating a deal to protect the Amazon rainforest in exchange for funding but it won’t be ready this week.

The danger for Australia is that it will again become a lightning rod for disappointment at the slow progress of the Biden talks.

Scott Morrison is not expected to make any big announcements at the Biden conference. Australia is sticking with its commitment to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels. Under the terms of the Paris agreement it is not required to make any change until some time around 2025. Mr Morrison has said he wants Australia to be carbon neutral as soon as possible, hopefully by 2050.

But the debate is shifting in Australia with a focus on how to best make saving carbon dioxide emissions a profit centre for business and farmers. The federal government is committing to research and development of hydrogen production as a possible substitute for energy exports in the future. Japan is heavily involved as a potential customer.

Carbon capture and storage is a focus of research for Australia as well for the US and China under their joint agreement this week.

Work is also under way on how farmers and forestry can benefit from capturing carbon dioxide to improve soil productivity while providing a way for industry to voluntarily offset their emissions.

In the meantime, Australia is trying to get the message heard that its actual performance on cutting greenhouse gas emissions is actually better than its peers.

Australia’s total emissions cut of 19 per cent from 2005 levels compares with 0 per cent by Canada, 8 per cent in NZ and 10 per cent in Germany, Japan and the US over the same period.

If Mr Morrison can continue to stabilise the domestic politics on the issue there is potential some movement on increasing ambition might be possible before the next United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Glasgow in November.

The biggest danger with that is that with COVID-19 still running hot in the United Kingdom it is possible, even likely, that the Glasgow meeting will again have to be postponed.