Transparency urged on NDIS cost forecasts

Debate over future cost of the scheme has ratcheted up in the wake of the release late Friday of the NDIS quarterly report.

Debate over future cost of the scheme has ratcheted up in the wake of the release late Friday of the NDIS quarterly report. Picture: thinkstock

Disability advocates and the opposition are calling for greater transparency from the government and the National Disability Insurance Agency on their multibillion-dollar cost projections for the NDIS.

They also called out the NDIA and the government for highlighting million-dollar NDIS packages, with one advocate saying recipients “aren’t swanning around living the high life, (but) have extremely complex support needs”.

Debate over the future cost of the scheme has ratcheted up in the wake of the release late Friday of the NDIS quarterly report, which included a projected $40 billion annual cost of the scheme within three years, almost $10 billion higher than the federal budget estimate less than two weeks earlier.

“We are concerned about which figures can be believed,” said David Moody, chief executive officer of National Disability Services, the peak body for disability service providers.

“We need to understand all the assumptions the agency and the government are relying on when they talk about funding. We also need to understand whether those assumptions take into account the costs avoided for the Australian economy and the community as a result of investment in the NDIS, such as lower costs expended on healthcare and mental health.”

Opposition NDIS spokesman Bill Shorten said the agency and the government should get their story straight on the scheme’s cost.

“The NDIA has now released different projections to the Treasurer’s budget two weeks ago – maybe these people should get in a room together and get their numbers right,” Mr Shorten said. “We want to see full and transparent agency accounts.”

Catherine McAlpine, CEO of Inclusion Australia, the peak body for people with intellectual disabilities and their families, said the “NDIA appears to be selective in the data it is making public”.

“They also haven’t released any modelling about the impact of independent assessments on people’s plans,” Ms McAlpine said.

The NDIS currently provides disability services for 450,000 people with permanent and significant disability at an estimated cost of $23 billion this financial year. This is expected to climb to 530,000 in another two years.

The budget tipped in a further $13.2 billion over the forward estimates into the NDIS, but the government is clearly concerned about how fast the scheme’s cost is rising. The NDIS quarterly report noted one response to support “scheme sustainability” was mandatory independent assessments to determine eligibility and funding. It said they would create equity between participants with the same disability, though advocates say the “robo-assessments” were designed to create savings.

“The Liberals have been running the NDIS for eight years and suddenly, as they try to steamroll through independent assessments, they claim they’re discovering all these nasty surprises,” Mr Shorten said.

Advocates questioned why the NDIA report highlighted the fact 450 people were on packages of more than $1 million a year, and another 5100 between $500,000 and $1m. “There seems to be no understanding that these people aren’t swanning around living the high life, and that they have extremely complex support needs,” Ms McAlpine said.

“Million-dollar plans are not the low-hanging fruit. These are primarily people with complex cognitive disabilities, many of whom have come from state systems where they experienced horrific violence, abuse and trauma.”

Mr Moody said the quarterly report appears to critique the fact the top 10 per cent of funded plans make up 54 per cent of the payments. “This doesn’t surprise us at all. It would be very surprising if all participants were getting the same amount,” he said.

“If what is being attempted is a narrative claiming a blowout, a more appropriate narrative would be to ensure the NDIS delivers on what was promised when it first rolled out. That is, people with disability getting choice and control and the capacity to lead ordinary lives, none of which is remarkable and all of which is still to be realised under the NDIS.”