Steven Miles says election wipe-out ‘very likely’ as new poll puts LNP in box seat

Queensland Premier Steven Miles concedes he’ll likely be ousted as premier at the October election as the latest YouGov poll shows he could lose 21 seats.

Steven Miles and David Crisafulli

Queensland Premier Steven Miles concedes it is “very likely” he will be ousted as premier at the October state election as new polling reveals the third-term Labor government is facing convincing defeat.

The YouGov results, published in The Courier-Mail, show the Liberal National Party leads Labor on a statewide two-party-preferred basis of 56-44 per cent.

This would translate to a loss of 21 seats for Mr Miles if the 9.2 per cent swing against Labor were uniform across the state at the October 26 election.

Labor won government in 2020 with a two-party-preferred result of 53.2 per cent to the LNP’s 46.8 per cent.

The poll of 1092 Queenslanders shows Labor’s primary vote has plummeted 13 points on the 2020 poll result to 27 per cent, while support for the LNP has lifted eight points in the same period.
The LNP, which holds 35 seats, needs a net gain of 12 to win majority government in the 93-seat parliament.

On preferred premier, Mr Miles trails LNP leader David Crisafulli 27-40 per cent.

Speaking from Mackay on Friday morning, Mr Miles said the poll results showed it was “very likely” he would lose the election.

“This confirms what we’ve known for some time that the most likely outcome in October is that David Crisafulli will be the new premier,” he said.

“That’s about six months away and he still has not detailed a single actual plan for our state.”

Mr Miles criticised the LNP for failing to detail an economic policy six months out from the election or its plan to meet emission reduction targets that the party voted in favour of last week.

The LNP backed Labor’s ambition of slashing 75 per cent of emissions by 2035 but has refused to declare support for the proposed pumped-hydro project critical to reaching the target.

“David Crisafulli’s strong support for our emissions reductions target is welcome but he opposed the plan to meet that target,” he said.

“So he needs to outline to Queenslanders what his plan is to meet the 75% reduction target emissions reduction target that he supported, that he has personally signed the LNP up to.

“I know he wants to be a small target. I know he wants to stay as tiny as he can, so that Queenslanders don’t know what his plans are.”

The proposed Pioneer-Burdekin Pumped Hydro project, which Labor is reliant on to meet its emission target and goal to have 80 per cent renewable energy by 2035, is still being subjected to financial, engineering and environmental investi­gations and is yet to get government approvals or substantive funding.

If successful in October, Mr Crisafulli – who was also in Mackay on Friday to host a health town hall – would be only the ­second state conservative leader in 38 years to win a general ­election in the state, behind one-term premier Campbell Newman.

Mr Crisafulli would not be drawn on the poll results.

“They’re not the numbers that drive and I’ve said that repeatedly.

“The numbers that drive me are 43 per cent ambulance ramping, 43,000 Queenslanders on the social housing waiting list and 19.9 per cent increase in power prices and 165 per cent increase in victim numbers.”

“We have been relentless in pursuing the issues that matter to Queenslanders and putting forward solutions and that that is what we will continue to do.”