YouGov poll: Labor on track to lose 21 seats at Queensland state election

Premier Steven Miles has spoken about Labor’s chances of remaining in power after the October state election in the face of an exclusive Courier-Mail poll that shows 21 seats could be lost.

Labor is on track for a savage defeat at voters desert Premier Steven Miles.

• Editor’s view: Labor is cooked

Labor is on track for a savage electoral defeat as voters desert Premier Steven Miles and the LNP extends its two-party lead just six months before the state election.

YouGov polling for The Courier-Mail reveals the government trails the Opposition 56 to 44 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, putting it on track to lose at least 21 seats in the October election.

Speaking to the media in regional Queensland this morning, Mr Miles admitted it was “likely, very likely” the LNP would defeat Labor and Mr Crisafulli would be the new premier within months.

“The most likely outcome in October is that David Crisafulli will be the new premier,” he said.

“He has still not detailed a single actual plan for our state. He wants to be a small target, I know he wants to stay as tiny as he can so that Queenslanders don’t know what his plans are.”

Mr Miles said Mr Crisafulli’s approach to polling day echoed that of Campbell Newman in 2012 that delivered “cuts to services” across the state.

Police Minister Mark Ryan, speaking to the media in Townsville, was more circumspect.

“We’ve always said that the next election would be tough. We’ve always said that and we’ve always though made it very clear that that won’t get in the way of our resolve to continue to fight for community, to show that we’re supporting the police and emergency services to invest in health and housing.”

But Mr Crisafulli played down the result, arguing the LNP “remain the underdog”.

“History shows what needs to occur to change government Queensland is huge and it’s tough,” he said.

“The struggle for us in winning those seats and changing government is a big one and I just can’t stress enough, the task ahead remains a massive one.”

Six ministers, including up-and-comer Meaghan Scanlon, face defeat in a brutal result that would see the government fall at least 15 seats short of a majority.

The polling also paints a bleak picture for Labor in the two inner-city seats it holds – Cooper and State Development Minister Grace Grace’s McConnel – with the Greens’ vote up six points to a record 15 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote is in freefall at 27 per cent, down a staggering 13 per cent from Annastacia Palaszczuk’s 2020 victory and the worst since May 2012 in the wake of Anna Bligh’s electoral wipe-out.

The latest YouGov poll of 1092 voters between April 9-17 paints a grim picture for the government and Mr Miles, who has attempted to distance himself from Ms Palaszczuk.

The result will renew concern within the government’s ranks about its electoral prospects, with MPs pinning their hopes of victory in October on the shoulders of the fresh-faced Mr Miles.

Instead, the poll reveals he has been unable to wrestle Labor’s sliding vote and convince Queenslanders to give the government an unusual fourth term.

Premier Steven Miles has been unable to wrestle Labor’s sliding vote. Picture: Nigel Hallett

Labor’s primary vote plunge has translated to an eight-point gain in the LNP’s primary vote, which now sits at 44 per cent.

It is the highest primary vote for the opposition since May 2016, but remains 10 points lower than the 54 per cent achieved in the wake of Campbell Newman’s landslide victory in 2012.

The 56-44 two-party margin in favour of the LNP is a nine-point shift from the 53-46 margin to Ms Palaszczuk in the Covid-19-influenced 2020 election.

The latest YouGov poll indicates the LNP will win significantly more than the net 13 seats it needs to govern in majority – easing fears minor parties could hold the balance of power in the 93-seat parliament.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has relentlessly targeted the government’s years-long struggles to address crime, housing and cost of living challenges.

The government’s diminishing primary vote has also delivered a six-point bump to the Greens compared to their October 2020 election result of 9.5 per cent.

Meaghan Scanlon is one of six Labor ministers facing defeat at the October election. Picture: Nigel Hallett

In addition to the 21 seats at risk of falling to the LNP, Labor is expected to also face a significant challenge from the Greens in its two inner-city seats of McConnel and Cooper.

The primary vote of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at 7.1 per cent, three points higher than October 2020.

The minor party holds one seat in the Queensland Parliament – Mirani, between Rockhampton and Mackay – and is pinning its hopes on a second with Senator Hanson’s chief of staff James Ashby running in Keppel.

Katter’s Australian Party – which holds three seats – has fallen two points to 2.5 per cent.

Labor hoped the removal of Ms Palaszczuk on December 15 would provide a reset and electoral bump for the government 10 months from the state election.

Two months before Ms Palaszczuk’s exit Labor’s primary vote had slid to 33 per cent and YouGov polling put the LNP on track to win the next election on a 52-48 margin.

Labor MPs were increasingly concerned Ms Palaszczuk would be unable to defeat Mr Crisafulli and overwhelmingly endorsed the shift to Mr Miles when Labor and union heavyweights decided she should go.

Mr Miles quickly moved to tackle the trio of challenges by pledging a new police helicopter for Townsville, releasing a $3bn Homes for Queenslanders Plan and establishing an inquiry into the supermarkets.

His efforts are yet to reap rewards, with voters in Labor’s heartland of Inala and Ipswich West using two by-elections in March to inflict a brutal blow against the government.

Labor suffered a 21.5 per cent swing in Ms Palaszczuk’s former Inala electorate and lost Ipswich West to the LNP.

Mr Miles at the time acknowledged it was a “bad result” for the government but said he was “determined” to continue listening and delivering for Queenslanders.

This month’s poll indicates the premier’s efforts are falling on deaf ears as voters across the state continue to desert Labor after nine years in power.