State of true political paralysis: Labor is frozen … but Annastacia Palaszczuk won’t let it go

Annastacia Palaszczuk is facing almost-certain defeat at next year’s state election, but her fearful colleagues can’t decide who should replace her, or have the guts to make a move.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk insists ‘not one person has raised any issues’ with her about her leadership. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Tertius Pickard

Queensland Labor is frozen.

Annastacia Palaszczuk is facing almost-certain defeat at next year’s state election, her third-term government is bleeding from issues it can’t seem to staunch, and backbenchers are worried for their jobs.

Inside the state Labor Party, many want to get rid of Ms Palaszczuk, but there is no consensus about who should replace her.

The Australian understands significant unions would prefer to back Health Minister Shannon Fentiman over Left faction leader and Deputy Premier Steven Miles, believing Ms Fentiman is more competent on policy and more palatable to the public.

“There has been a split in who is best to replace the Premier, with people now shifting their support behind Shannon Fentiman,” a senior Labor figure said.

“It’s just a mood change, not a formalised thing,” they added.

“The easiest path would be to have Fentiman and Miles in the leadership (as Premier and deputy), given the strong numbers for the Left in caucus, the branches, and the unions.”

“But most people think that (Right faction Treasurer) Cameron Dick wouldn’t let that happen without a fight. And he’ll spike any deal like that.”

After her two-week European holiday, Ms Palaszczuk returned to work on Monday in a defiant mood, declaring she was “absolutely determined” to lead Labor to the next election.

Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman are friends and rivals. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Scott Powick

“Not one person has raised any issues with me,” she said, after meeting her cabinet ministers.

Labor rules make rolling a sitting premier prohibitively difficult and politically messy, particularly without a clear successor. A majority of her partyroom would have to petition Labor state secretary Kate Flanders for a spill, triggering a vote of state MPs, branch members and affiliated unions. A contested ballot would be a gift for the LNP.

As one senior MP put it, “we would have all this infighting, give the LNP plenty of fodder, and at the end of it all we’d end up in a worse place than we are now”.

Left faction leader and United Workers Union boss Gary Bullock – and to a lesser extent party president and former union boss John Battams – effectively hold Ms Palaszczuk’s future in their hands. It would be up to them to tap her on the shoulder and convince her it’s time to go.

The pair will also play a key role in determining her replacement. “Gary still supports Annastacia as Premier,” a senior MP said. “He remains loyal to her and believes she can carry the campaign.”

Mr Bullock rang Ms Palaszczuk to welcome her home from her holiday on Monday, but the Premier declined to say whether he expressed his support and he did not answer questions from The Australian.

Since then-Left leader Jackie Trad lost her seat at the 2020 election, Mr Bullock has championed Mr Miles.

The pair appeared inseparable; Mr Miles had seemingly been anointed the chosen one by the Left factional leader, who had become accustomed to unfettered access to Ms Palaszczuk.

But in the past year, Ms Fentiman has shown her competence in handling complex and delicate policy issues, even after being moved from her favoured role of Attorney-General to the somewhat poisoned portfolio of health.

The continued influence of Mr Battams and Mr Bullock show the disproportionate sway of the former and current union leaders on the Palaszczuk government. They were among the only party elders to give Ms Palaszczuk support and resources in the political wilderness of opposition between 2012 and 2015, and they will now decide her fate.

United Workers Union leader Gary Bullock.

Queensland Labor president John Battams. Picture: AAP

Mr Battams is believed to be one of her last remaining confidants, in an ever-shrinking circle of advisers.

Ms Palaszczuk has become increasingly isolated from her cabinet, and even from some close supporters.

Mr Bullock is the powerbroker who runs most of the party, and has the numbers.

Of Labor’s 52-person caucus, 34 MPs – or 65 per cent – belong to the Left or are card-carrying members of Mr Bullock’s union, or both.

In cabinet, 12 of 18 ministers (67 per cent) are aligned with Mr Bullock.

But there is a perception his popularity and judgment are faltering.

As the UWU’s national political director and a newly appointed member of Labor’s federal executive, there is concern in Queensland Labor that Mr Bullock is spending too much time in Canberra.

At the recent ALP federal conference in Brisbane, Mr Bullock is believed to have played an integral role in quelling public dissent over the AUKUS submarine deal.

“There are people in Labor’s Left pissed off that the peace deal robbed them of giving real voice to their anger from the floor of conference over AUKUS,” one senior Labor source said.

The electoral magic of the “accidental Premier” – who in 2012 led just nine opposition MPs to obliterate Campbell Newman’s biggest-ever parliamentary majority after a single term in government – is gone.

After almost nine years in power and three against-the-odds election wins, the stakes are high.

The four most recent published polls show Labor is on track to be soundly defeated by the LNP at the next election.

Polling released by the RedBridge Group at the weekend revealed a two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent for the LNP against just 45 per cent for Labor.

On those numbers, Labor’s 52 seats would almost be halved, in a rout rivalling Labor premier Anna Bligh’s 2012 loss.

Without consensus on who should replace Ms Palaszczuk, senior members of caucus and the union movement fear another electoral bloodbath is looming.

“If they have the status quo, it’ll be a repeat of 2012, when no one would act on Bligh,” a senior Labor figure told The Australian.

“They were frozen then and they’re frozen now.”

Additional reporting: Lydia Lynch