Annastacia Palaszczuk is expected to ‘dig in’ in the face of internal unrest

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has returned from overseas to stare down Labor critics who want her to quit and declared she will ‘absolutely’ stay as leader.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, with partner Dr Reza Adib, arrives at Brisbane International Airport on Sunday night after her overseasl holiday, to face leadership unrest as she returns to work on Monday. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Annastacia Palaszczuk has stared down Labor critics who want her to quit and declared she will “absolutely” stay on as leader, as new polling fuels fears she is leading the third-term government to a wipe-out at next year’s election.

Arriving in Brisbane late on Sunday night from a two-week overseas holiday with her surgeon partner, Ms Palaszczuk said she was “looking forward to a big week”.

The Queensland Premier will on Monday front an anxious cabinet and caucus after a fourth successive poll showed Labor is headed for defeat.

Premier @AnnastaciaMP has touched down in Brisbane. She says she will “absolutely” stay on as Labor leader. pic.twitter.com/8JQYnkXZAF

— Lydia Lynch (@LydiaLynch101) September 10, 2023

The new poll, conducted by RedBridge Group, shows Labor’s vote collapsing across regional Queensland and a sweep of inner-city Brisbane seats likely to fall to the Greens, as they did at last year’s federal election.

But while MPs and ALP sources expect Ms Palaszczuk to “dig-in” over her leadership, they have told The Australian there is growing concern on the backbench and union that the government is headed for a devastating loss if she remains Premier.

“If we maintain the status quo, we are going to walk off the cliff like we did in 2012,” one senior Labor source said.

In the 2012 election, Queensland Labor was reduced to only seven seats after 16 straight years in power.

Annastacia Palaszczuk at Brisbane International Airport on Sunday night. Picture: David Clark

Queensland Labor rules, requiring a three-way leadership ballot of the caucus, unions and ALP membership in the event of a spill, have thwarted any push to challenge Ms Palaszczuk ahead of the October 2024 election.

“If there was a spill and no agreement on who would replace the Premier, then there would be a six-week ballot process and campaign between the contenders,’’ one Labor MP said. “With all of that going on, we would end up being in a worse spot in the polls than we are already in.’’

Deputy Premier Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman, both members of the Left faction, which dominate the caucus and cabinet – and Treasurer Cameron Dick, from the Right faction, are the likely contenders.

Left factional powerbroker and union boss Gary Bullock has indicated to Labor MPs that he supports Ms Palaszczuk remaining as Premier, but has refused to publicly declare his support.

Ms Palaszczuk, who did not tell most of her cabinet colleagues of her overseas holiday, declared earlier this year that she would lead Labor to the election.

But she did not want to talk about leadership issues and ­revealed she was suffering from health issues when approached by The Australian late last month, while accompanying her partner Reza Adib at a medical conference in Naples.

The poll results of more than 2000 Queensland voters, surveyed between August 26 and last Wednesday, delivered a blow to Labor morale ahead of Ms Palaszczuk’s return to work and a parliamentary sitting week.

One Labor MP said the polling painted a “dire” picture for the government.

“The inner city is stuffed and the regions are absolutely cooked,” they said.

“It has big 2012 vibes. We can’t have too many more like this. She (Ms Palaszczuk) has to think about how, and if, she can turn this around. She is not the most nimble policymaker.”

A Labor backbencher, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Ms Palaszczuk “needs to go”.

“But she is quite stubborn and I don’t think she would go unless she really thinks we will lose,” they said. “I think the public has switched off to her, they think she is tone deaf on some issues.”

RedBridge Group director and former assistant ALP state secretary in Victoria, Kosmos Samaras, told The Australian the research was not commissioned by anyone and that the company regularly releases state and ­issued-based polling to the public.

The research shows Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 26 per cent, a drop of eight percentage points since the 2020 state election, with the state opposition on 41 per cent.

On a two party preferred basis, the David Crisafulli-led Liberal National Party has a commanding lead with 55 per cent of the vote after preferences, against 45 per cent for Labor.

On that poll, the Palaszczuk government could lose more than 20 seats, with the biggest casualties in regional Queensland.

The Greens, which now have two MPs in the 93-seat parliament, are on track to pick up several inner-city Brisbane with their primary vote sitting on 14 per cent.