Post-Covid overseas arrivals higher than South Australia’s population

Almost two million international migrants have arrived in Australia since the end of Covid restrictions in late 2021.

Australia’s population has moved past 27 million.

Almost two million international migrants – more than the current population of South Australia – have arrived in Australia since the end of Covid restrictions in late 2021.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show the nation’s population has pushed past the 27 million mark, growing by 615,300 people or 2.3 per cent in the year to March 31. The March quarter alone had a population increase of 164,600.

The rise includes a natural increase of 105,500, which is the number of births compared with deaths, and 509,800 in net overseas migration. Annual NOM for the year to December 2023 was 541,000, indicating a downward trend.

“Net overseas migration drove 83 per cent of this population growth, while births and deaths … made up the other 17 per cent,” said ABS head of demography Beidar Cho.

Extrapolating the data to the present day and allowing for a further easing in the number of international migrants, an estimated 1.9 million people have migrated to Australia since October 2021.

That amounts to an average of 1910 a day and is more than South Australia’s current population, estimated at 1.89 million.

Over the same period an estimated 579,000 people – slightly more than the current population of Tasmania – have left the country to live overseas, for an overall gain from NOM of more than 1.3 million in almost three years.

While the Albanese government’s May budget had projected NOM at 395,000 for the 2023-24 financial year, the total for the first three quarters to March is 388,000, indicating there will be a significant overshoot. The budget NOM forecast for 2024-25 is 260,000.

The population debate in Australia flows on into broader current issues around housing supply and affordability, as well as productivity. Overseas migrants tend to gravitate to the capital cities where housing is tight, but most come at working age, making an immediate productivity contribution. The fact many are international students complicates the productivity argument.

Opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan said annual migration was on track to be beyond 400,000 for the second year in a row, and could even reach 500,000.

“The Prime Minister needs to explain where all these people are going to live,” Mr Tehan said. “Australians are experiencing a housing and rental crisis, but the Prime Minister seems to be unaware.

“Labor kept their plans for a Big Australia secret before the election, and Australians are living with the consequences.”

A government spokesman said the post-pandemic spike in numbers had been “enabled by the broken migration system we inherited”.

“These numbers don’t reflect the measures that came into effect in July,” the spokesman said. “We’ve taken wide-ranging action to bring it back to sustainable levels and we’re making progress towards that. The data shows migration is coming down even before many of our reforms take effect.

“What we’re seeing here is the collision between a one-in-100-year event, in the pandemic, and a migration system which an independent report found was ‘broken’ and ‘in need of a 10-year rebuild’.’’

KPMG director of demographics and urban economics Terry Rawnsley said births in the year to March were low at 289,700, down 5000 from the previous year. “It does point to a potential demographic time bomb, with fewer workers being able to service the needs of the ageing population in a generation’s time, so we need to get our migration settings right,” Mr Rawnsley said.

Western Australia’s population grew the fastest in the year to March, up by 3.1 per cent to almost three million people, while Tasmania had the most anaemic growth at 0.4 per cent.

Queensland reported net interstate migration of almost 31,000 people across the year to March, while NSW lost about the same number.