Watching One Nation voters shift back to Labor in regional Queensland and outer-suburban electorates has sent a shiver down the spines of Liberal National Party strategists.
Before last year’s federal election, the central and north Queensland seats of Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson and Herbert were all in play. Further south, marginal seats including Forde and Longman were expected to be too close to call.
Scott Morrison set up campaign headquarters in Queensland and spent weeks campaigning in the battleground state where Labor voters ultimately turned their backs on Bill Shorten en masse. The Prime Minister, whose personal appeal was viewed as an X-factor in the campaign, picked off the marginal Queensland seats to secure a Coalition majority government.
But federal election results reflect margins described by senior LNP figures as “illusions” — aberrations inflated by high primary votes and preference flows from One Nation and other conservative minor parties.
Both of the major parties expected the One Nation vote to tank on Saturday, but while Labor strategists suggested One Nation voters would shift to the LNP, the Queensland election yet again proved that assumption to be false.
The tight Queensland election races in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay, seats the LNP needed to retain, will also be a concern for the Coalition in the respective federal electorates of Hinkler, held by Resources Minister Keith Pitt, and Wide Bay. And if Warren Entsch retires at the next election, federal Labor will fancy its chances of reclaiming the Cairns-based electorate of Leichhardt.
In the event that more Queenslanders shift back to the major parties at the next federal election, driven by economic and health concerns fanned by the COVID-19 pandemic, LNP campaigners will need to consolidate the votes they won in 2019.
Queensland LNP senator Matt Canavan said the Coalition must not “take the hi-vis vote for granted … The hi-vis vote is colour-blind, they don’t go team red or team blue, they’re always up for grabs. The Bob Brown, Bill Shorten and Adani 2019 lightning storm won’t strike twice,” he said.
Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ruthless campaign strategy — dumping unpopular left-faction powerbroker Jackie Trad, shutting the borders and shifting Labor’s approach on Adani and coalmining — effectively wooed back disaffected ALP voters.
Morrison’s tactics at the federal election will need to get the balance right.
And COVID-19 politics will continue to evolve towards the next major domestic election in Western Australia on March 13.
While incumbency and effective management of COVID-19, coupled with federal Labor’s internal divisions on energy and climate policy, gives the Coalition a significant advantage, the LNP knows it must maintain its dominance in Queensland to stay in office.
On the other side, Anthony Albanese is clearly not in the same position as Palaszczuk. Like Deb Frecklington, he is stuck in an opposition COVID-19 vortex. And there is ongoing doubt the left-faction Labor leader, who holds the inner-west Sydney seat of Grayndler, can drag the party back to centrist territory that appeals to Queensland voters.
The underwhelming performance of the LNP in regional Queensland on Saturday, while acknowledging different priorities at state and federal elections, will also put pressure on Michael McCormack. Without a Nationals leader who can cut through and boost support in regional Australia, the pressure on Morrison to sandbag largely Nationals seats in Queensland is greater.
Regional Nationals MPs will continue freelancing to fill the void, putting them at odds with Liberal colleagues on coal and climate targets.
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