WA election: ‘Victory’ in a liberal sense

Premier Mark McGowan at ANZAC House, in Perth on Wednesday. Picture: Colin Murty/The Australian

Mark McGowan remains a certainty to be crowned West Australian premier again on Saturday night, but there is a growing belief within both major parties that the Liberals’ warnings of the dangers of “total control” may be enough to prevent an electoral oblivion.

What may constitute a success for the WA Liberals this weekend says a lot about the astoundingly low expectations about this election.

The Liberal opposition should record its worst ever loss, leader Zak Kirkup could become the first WA leader in almost 90 years to lose his seat and he has said he will walk away from politics forever if he does, ending a dream that began with so much promise in 2017 when the then 30-year-old became the youngest person in the state parliament.

Yet the result may still not be considered a total disaster for the party.

Since pivoting the campaign a month ago to one based on the risks of handing Labor too much power – a move that later resulted in Mr Kirkup controversially conceding the election more than two weeks before polling day – there is a sense that the Liberals’ wipeout may be less severe than it previously looked.

Mark McGowan remains a certainty to be crowned West Australian premier again on Saturday night. Picture: Colin Murty

Mr Kirkup’s efforts to reinforce the importance of having a functioning opposition may be enough to keep some of the rusted-on Liberal voters who may have been contemplating supporting Labor in recognition of Mr McGowan’s leadership during the pandemic, potentially saving some of the blue-ribbon seats that were at risk of falling to Labor for the first time.

Both Labor and Liberal sources believe the “total control” message has resonated enough for the Liberals to avoid the Armageddon scenario it faced last month, when Newspoll pointed to the party retaining as few as two seats.

Mr Kirkup’s campaign appearances in recent days have reinforced the sandbagging efforts in once-safe Liberal seats, while also showing just the faintest hints of optimism in seats that had looked gone.

On Wednesday, he appeared in Fremantle to tout the benefits of the Roe 8 and 9 transport corridor through Perth’s southern suburbs, which the party believes enjoys strong support in nearby electorates that look at risk of falling to Labor. On Tuesday, he appeared in Darling Range, a seat the Liberals pinched from Labor in a by-election in 2018 but which looks likely to fall to Labor. At the start of the week he was flanked by supporters outside the Peel Health Campus, which sits in the middle of Mr Kirkup’s under-threat seat of Dawesville, while at the weekend he was out in Kalamunda, campaigning in a seat that before falling to Labor at the 2017 election had always been a Liberal stronghold.

Mr McGowan has been out in some of those in-play seats – such as Mr Kirkup’s Dawesville, and the Nationals-held North West Central district in regional WA – as he attempts to convert his astounding levels of public popularity into more seats for Labor.

Mr Kirkup on Wednesday said Labor’s campaigning efforts showed that, despite the Premier’s insistence that the election outcome is unknown, Labor was intent on grabbing every seat it could. “The reality is the Labor Party has been campaigning in districts like Nedlands and North West Central because (it) is doing everything it can to seize total control of the parliament and have too much power,” he said.

The 13 seats won by the Liberals in 2017 was the worst in the party’s history and an even worse result looks certain for Saturday. But even if the number of Liberal seats is reduced to the high single digits – a level of representation once thought unthinkable – some Liberals will be satisfied with that outcome given how dire things looked a few weeks ago.

Those Liberal members may even end up cracking a smile if Mr Kirkup holds Dawesville, although his thin margin of 0.8 per cent and Mr McGowan’s exceptional approval ratings among the elderly that make up a disproportionate amount of the Dawesville electorate means such an outcome remains unlikely.

Throughout the campaign, Mr McGowan has stuck resolutely to his message that the Liberals are risky, inexperienced and not ready to govern.

Policy matters have taken a back seat since Mr Kirkup’s concession. Labor’s presidential-style campaign, centred around Mr McGowan, has been deliberately light on major promises.

It means Labor may emerge with one of the biggest mandates of any government in Australian history, with very little specific big-picture policy or reform on the agenda.