Tony Abbott: ‘I am just warming up’

Tony Abbott has an answer for ‘the three things’ against him.

Tony Abbott on Manly Beach: ‘I’m hoping that the people of Warringah will elect me because of what I’m going to do in the future, not what I’ve done in the past’. Picture: Jane Dempster

After 25 years as the member for Warringah, on Sydney’s northern beaches, Tony Abbott sees himself as the underdog in a battle for re-election that is as much about ­defending his past as it is about convincing voters that he is the best person to represent them into the future.

In an interview with Inquirer, Abbott identifies “the three things” that are counting against him in Warringah and rebuts each one in turn. He labels them as “a prejudice or a smear” and asks voters who have passed judgment on him to reconsider.

First, he is characterised as a wrecker who plotted Malcolm Turnbull’s downfall after losing the prime ministership in 2015 and has shifted the Liberal Party to the Right of Australian politics.

“I’m one of only four Liberal leaders to take us from opposition into government,” Abbott says. “I believe in the Liberal Party as a broad church. I put Malcolm Turnbull on my frontbench in ­opposition. I kept him in my cabinet in government.

“I note that ­Malcolm never returned the compliment when he had a chance to do so.

“I have never given to a journalist information about someone else which is designed to damage another person. From time to time I might have offered a critical judgment on individual policies, maybe on occasion even individuals, but I’ve always acted in accordance with what I think the rules of politics should be.”

Second is the charge that Abbott is too old at 61 and his time should be up after 25 years in parliament. But Abbott notes that one-third of voters in Warringah are at least 60 years old. He points to Donald Trump, who was 70 when he was inaugurated as US President in 2017.

“If you had nothing more to contribute, if you had run out of ideas, if you are becoming politically senescent, sure, but I think I’m fitter than most 40-year-olds,” he says. “I’ve got as much energy now as I had when I was 36, (and) I know a lot more.”

He adds: “I’ve got at least another good decade in me.”

Third is the suggestion that ­Abbott is out of touch with his electorate. Same-sex marriage, which he opposed, is emblematic of this argument. Seventy five per cent of voters in Warringah supported same-sex marriage in the 2017 postal survey — the fifth highest vote in NSW.

“I accept the verdict,” he says. “I attended my sister Christine’s wedding. While I hope that we can maintain the right of the churches to teach and practise their own beliefs on marriage, I certainly accept that as far as the state is concerned, marriage is now and will be for the future between any two people.”

Another symbolic issue is climate change. Even though Abbott has had different positions on climate change policy over the years, such as the merits of an emissions trading scheme and the Paris Agreement, he insists his views have not changed.

“My position all along has been that climate change is real, that mankind makes a contribution and that we should take sensible steps to limit emissions,” he says. “I don’t think climate change is the biggest issue we’re facing — never have, never will — unless the evidence changes dramatically.”

The Abbott government set up the Green Army and funded initiatives such as cleaning up waterways, eliminating feral animals, dealing with invasive weeds and native revegetation projects. “The emissions obsession has, in many cases, detracted from the practical environmental problems that we really need to solve,” he says.

Abbott is engaged in the fight of his life to retain Warringah. His lead challenger is high-profile independent candidate Zali Steggall, a barrister and former Olympic skier. The cashed-up campaign group GetUp, alongside Labor and the unions, is determined to oust Abbott. The electorate is plastered with signs calling time on Abbott’s political career. His opponents are running street stalls, knocking on doors, handing out flyers, holding rallies and calling constituents, urging them to back anyone but Abbott. It is intense and unremitting, and it might be working. A ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp recently showed Abbott headed for defeat.

Abbott is also knocking on doors and handing out flyers, making local announcements, engaging in debates and public forums, and using social media to make the case for re-election. He even shared his surprise at seeing a street library while doorknocking. He expects to campaign locally with Scott Morrison and would welcome Turnbull’s help with phoning voters.

The Liberal Party is worried about losing Warringah. Polling during the last election showed the Liberal vote had fallen to the mid-40s. The seat was at risk of being won by Labor’s Andrew Woodward or independent James Mathison. Now, with the Coalition behind in Newspoll and the rise of independents and minor parties, Abbott is especially vulnerable.

For Abbott to lose Warringah, he suggests his primary vote would have to fall from 51.6 per cent to about 45-46 per cent. Steggall could get over the line with preferences. In Wentworth, independent Kerryn Phelps won with 29.1 per cent of the vote against Liberal Dave Sharma’s 43 per cent.

Abbott says former mayor and state MP Peter Macdonald, who ran as an independent candidate for Warringah in 2001 and received 27.7 per cent of the vote, was a stronger candidate than Steggall. The difference now, he argues, is the “formidable machine” behind her. “It’s highly professional, it’s extremely well-funded and it’s got the best expertise in the political business,” he says.

On March 26, 1994, Abbott was elected to the seat of Warringah in a by-election. It was held on the same day as the neighbouring Mackellar by-election, in which Bronwyn Bishop transferred from the Senate to the House of Representatives, with the hope of becoming Liberal leader. Her ambition was short-lived.

Abbott had studied at Oxford on a Rhodes scholarship, trained as a priest and worked as a journalist, press secretary to Liberal leader John Hewson and as executive ­director of Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy. When he walked into the House of Representatives for the first time, Paul Keating was prime minister and Hewson was opposition leader.

“Keating was the finest political hunter-killer of his generation,” Abbott says. “He was a much better treasurer than he was prime minister. The Hawke government was a good government in a significant measure because of Keating’s contribution to it.”

The Liberal Party would soon be engulfed in leadership drama as Hewson was put to the sword and Alexander Downer became leader. Hewson’s Fightback manifesto was dumped and he was never forgiven for losing the so-called “unlosable” election in 1993. “As a policy initiator, as a policy thinker, Hewson deserves to be put on a very high pedestal,” Abbott says. It is a kind assessment.

In early 1995, after Downer’s leadership had long circled the drain, John Howard returned, Lazarus-like, to the Liberal leadership. Howard appointed Abbott as a parliamentary secretary after winning in 1996, and two years later he was elevated to the ministry.

“Howard is certainly the greatest prime minister since (Robert) Menzies,” Abbott says. “I was proud to serve in his government.” Abbott describes himself as “a one-man Praetorian guard” for Howard and notes he was one of the few in cabinet who supported him remaining prime minister until the 2007 election.

Abbott’s time as a minister (1998-2007) and prime minister (2013-15) is front and centre in the Warringah campaign. He accepts that, over time, politicians build up baggage that can be hard to jettison. Views become fixed and they can be hard to shift. “Friends come and go but enemies accumulate,” he concedes. “The longer you’ve been around, the more scar tissue you get, and it’s hard to make a fresh start.” Those who know him say the public stereotype does not reflect “the real Tony”.

When he entered parliament, Abbott says he did not aspire to be prime minister. “I had too many unpopular views on too many unfashionable subjects to ever to be party leader,” he says. “I thought Joe Hockey would become the leader back in December 2009. But because I took a stand (on climate change) and Joe didn’t, I emerged as the leader by one vote and the rest, as they say, is history.”

The Abbott government was not without achievements. He names stopping refugee boats, repealing the carbon and mining taxes, investing in transport and road infrastructure, signing off on a new western Sydney airport, and finalising several free trade deals. “The Abbott government got done all the things that (it) promised to do,” he says.

But, as he acknowledges to a degree, there were policy U-turns and blunders. Voters have not forgotten the 2014 budget, which cut spending across the board and broke election promises. Abbott regrets reintroducing knights and dames and abolishing the debt ceiling. The ministry often had a tin ear for politics and lacked a political narrative, and management of government was frequently shambolic.

Would Abbott like to return to the Liberal leadership if he wins Warringah? “You don’t say ‘never’ in this business, but it’s not something that I’m expecting,” he says.

Abbott is, understandably, eager to shift attention to back to Warringah. He trusts that a balanced view of his record alongside his community involvement in the rural fire service, lifesaving and other charitable work, and his commitment to indigenous issues, will be recognised by voters.

“To represent 100,000 people in the Australian parliament is a tremendous honour, a great privilege and a wonderful opportunity,” he says. “My focus is what did I make of that opportunity, and I think I made a lot of it — for the electorate, for the party, for the country.

“As far as I am concerned, I am just warming up. I’m not expecting the people of Warringah to elect me as a reward. I’m hoping that the people of Warringah will elect me because of what I’m going to do in the future, not what I’ve done in the past.” The voters, as ever, will be the ultimate judges of that.