If Lockdown 5.0 is short, sharp and successful in Victoria, it will have the potential to redefine the national debate on the management of the virus.
Daniel Andrews wants everyone to think he goes hard and fast on lockdowns.
Having initially gone soft, slow and clumsy on the killer outbreak in mid-2020, the Victorian Premier has returned to work in 2021 with a much sharper response.
He outlined his intentions on the first day back, making clear that hard lockdowns were a favoured option to prevent another long-running breakout.
It is a starkly different strategy to the Berejiklian government and there is a good chance Andrews will be on the right side of 2021 history.
“You only get one chance to go hard and go fast.
“If you wait, if you hesitate, if you doubt, then you will always be looking back wishing you had done more earlier,” he said on Thursday.
The five-day decision was rushed to an extent, with the government privately hopeful on Wednesday that it could keep the spread at bay.
The five-day decision was rushed to an extent, with the government privately hopeful on Wednesday that it could keep the spread at bay.
But the Delta variant is on the march, leaking into regional Victoria, the MCG and elsewhere.
In many ways, Lockdown 5.0 is the easy way out.
It will give public health officials time to determine whether the virus has spread markedly.
The best guess is that it won’t have, and Victoria will crawl out of its collective pyjamas relatively soon.
This is something that NSW cannot, and will not, be able to say.
To that end, there is so much politics at play in the Andrews decision.
If Victoria climbs quickly out of the shutdown and NSW is bogged in high case numbers, Labor will have built a powerful platform upon which to debate the virus.
Andrews has calculated that the political damage of a long-term shutdown is far greater than a more controlled response that contains the carnage to days and maybe a few weeks.
It also exposes Scott Morrison to potential political heartburn if a perception builds that Canberra is not doing enough to compensate Victorian businesses.
The argument over who gets what commonwealth help to compensate for the shutdowns will sour very quickly as people fight for their livelihoods.
All people will want to know is when Lockdown 5.0 will end and whether they can be helped through the crisis.
The last thing business will be looking for is political brinkmanship, particularly as the nation heads towards an election early next year.
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