The Daniel Andrews era to live on in Victoria, Newspoll finds

Daniel Andrews would storm back into office in Victoria amid grave questions among voters about the performance of his Liberal opponent, according to Newspoll.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Daniel Pockett

Daniel Andrews has ­defied unrest over some of the world’s toughest Covid-19 restrictions and is on track to win a third term for Labor in the Victorian election as Liberal leader Matthew Guy’s personal ratings slump to record lows three months from polling day.

A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian reveals Labor’s primary vote has fallen only slightly since the 2018 election rout, while dissatisfaction with Mr Guy’s performance has soared seven points since voter sentiment was last tested in ­November last year. Labor holds a 56-44 per cent two-party-­preferred lead in the latest poll taken between Monday and Thursday compared with the 58-42 per cent lead Labor held in the previous Newspoll.

The numbers suggest the ­Coalition is heading for another major loss in the first state ­election since Scott Morrison’s federal ­defeat in May, when Kooyong and Goldstein fell to independents and large swings away from the ­Liberals were recorded in other key seats.

At 41 per cent, Victorian Labor’s primary vote, while down three points from last ­November, is equal to or higher than at any time before the 2014 or 2018 elections. Mr Andrews’ satisfaction rating of 54 per cent is higher than at any time before the 2014 or 2018 elections and has barely changed since the last Newspoll in November. Dissatisfaction with Mr Andrews is 41 per cent for a net satisfaction rating of 13.

Only 32 per cent of voters were satisfied with Mr Guy’s performance compared with 49 per cent dissatisfied. Mr Guy’s net satisfaction of minus 17 per cent, is the ­lowest he has recorded in ­Newspoll, worse than his previous low of minus 15 a month ­before the 2018 election. The result is certain to increase chatter about his ­viability in the run-up to the election.

There will also be concerns about suggestions independents will stand in key seats after the success of teal candidates in the May federal election. Statewide support for “others” is running at 10 per cent.

The Greens have increased their primary vote support to 13 per cent, which could – if the swing falls in the right seats – help the minor party win up to three extra lower-house positions.

The Newspoll numbers suggest Mr Andrews would be returned to office with a workable majority if an election were held this week, killing off chances of Labor being forced into a minority power-sharing ­arrangement.

Labor won 55 seats at the 2018 election compared with the ­Coalition’s 27, and a redistribution notionally handed a net gain of one seat to Labor and took one off the ­opposition.

This month marks the 20th ­anniversary of the Victorian Liberals dumping Denis Napthine as leader in the run-up to the 2002 election, which contributed to a landslide Labor win.

Senior Liberals have been ­informally discussing the merits of whether to keep Mr Guy in the position, arguing the transition from former leader Michael O’Brien hasn’t worked. “If there is another scandal, he’s gone, but who would ever want that job now?” a senior Liberal said. “He wanted it badly enough; he can deal with the mess.”

Multiple Labor sources have said momentum had shifted ­towards the Coalition until the ­opposition was engulfed in an integrity scandal over a botched pay rise for a former adviser and ­debate raged about Mr Morrison’s decision to secretly take on extra cabinet appointments during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

“I am not expecting a clear-cut Labor victory, it will be more ­nuanced than that, with losses in strange places. But we will win,” a senior Labor MP said.

There are 14 key seats that Labor is at risk of losing on ­November 26, six of which the Coalition was hopeful of winning.

Senior Liberal sources said no one was realistically expecting a Coalition majority, with a Labor minority government the best ­result likely.

If this weekend’s Newspoll is replicated on election day, the Labor losses could be contained to between three and six seats, ­despite the carnage caused by the pandemic.

The support comes despite Victoria having been one of the world’s most locked down ­communities during the pandemic.

A senior Labor source said that while there was not universal love for Mr Andrews, the Coalition had failed to present as a trustworthy, viable alternative. “Dan is not loved but in order for people to switch allegiances, there has to be faith in the ­opposing parties,’’ the source said.

“There is no faith because Guy is a total dud.”

On the better premier rating, Mr Andrews is down three points to 51 per cent and Mr Guy is ­statistically unchanged on 34 per cent.

The Coalition primary vote of 36 per cent has barely moved since 2018 while Labor is down nearly two points to 41 per cent, with an expectation the November election result would have Labor in the 30s.