The Victorian Liberal leader is paying a high price for his in-house integrity scandal and the waves of disbelief about Scott Morrison’s secret thirst for cabinet power. These are the defining contemporary issues that have thwarted the Coalition’s momentum in the lead-up to the November 26 Victorian election.
The Premier probably will still lose seats, but with these numbers he would waltz back into power for the third time with a majority and leave his opponents in a state of disrepair. Again.
Until the Coalition scandal erupted over a secret attempt to bolster a staffer’s salary via a donor, both sides of politics were detecting a potential shift against Labor. This momentum has clearly stalled.
Based on preference flows at recent state and federal elections, Andrews would have secured 56 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote had a poll been held this week, just over a point less than the 2018 rout.
This is despite truckloads of baggage that include one of the world’s longest pandemic lockdown strategies, a buckling health system, a smashed budget, major project overruns and integrity scandals piling up on Spring St.
The Greens’ primary vote is up more than two points since the last election and there is still opportunity in these numbers for gains in maybe three seats.
The biggest concern for the teal independents and the Greens is that if this poll is replicated, Labor would not be forced into minority and to that extent the argument becomes academic.
Past elections have shown that voting sentiment can shift sharply in the final weeks of election campaigns and the expectation among political hardheads is that the strong Labor support will probably dissipate somewhat between now and polling day.
This is Guy’s great hope. He needs to deliver stability to the Coalition message about pumping billions of dollars of extra cash back into the health system. If he cannot challenge Andrews at the November election, his elevation to the leadership will be seen as a total disaster. Anyone remember the pandemic?
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The Newspoll headline results are awful for Matthew Guy and are the best-case scenario for Dan Andrews.