Teal-held North Sydney seat faces the chop amid AEC shake-up
The AEC is poised to abolish the North Sydney federal seat under its proposed redistribution as both Liberal and Labor attempt to chart their best path to victory.
Teal independent Kylea Tink faces the prospect of a one-term political career after the Australian Electoral Commission announced plans to abolish the NSW seat of North Sydney in a three-state redistribution that has left both major parties scrambling to work out their best paths to electoral victory.
North Sydney – a foundation seat created when the commonwealth was established in 1901 and held by Liberals and their conservative predecessors for almost all of the 121 years before being claimed by Ms Tink in 2022 – has been earmarked to be the electoral casualty as the AEC reduce NSW’s divisions by one to 46.
North Sydney’s voters will be split three ways into neighbouring Warringah, Bradfield and Bennelong.
Although the abolition of North Sydney would deny the Liberals the chance to win back part of its traditional heartland, their chances in Bennelong would be boosted, with John Howard’s old seat regaining wealthy suburbs around Hunters Hill, Woolwich and Greenwich, and losing Labor-leaning Epping.
Ms Tink, who declined to announce on Friday whether she would contest a different seat, said she was “obviously disappointed” but that it had “never been about me”.
“North Sydney has long punched above its weight in its contribution to building a better Australia,” she said, saying she remained “committed to the independent political movement”.
The redistribution of North Sydney’s voters is likely to have less impact to the east in Warringah, held by teal independent Zali Steggall, but would likely turn Liberal-held Bradfield into a close contest between incumbent Paul Fletcher and a Climate 200-backed independent candidate.
Senior Liberal sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that although Bradfield became “harder” for the party, it was not unexpected.
“Paul knows he’s in for a fight, but he’s not too concerned, we were expecting it,” they said.
RedBridge strategy and analytics director Kos Samaras, however, said the seat would be closely contested if the AEC’s proposals were finalised in October.
“It’s taken in some of her (Ms Tink’s) best booths … like Artarmon, which polled at 5 per cent higher than her electorate average,” the campaign expert said.
Independent Nicolette Boele, who is backed by Climate 200, ran second to Mr Fletcher in 2022 and will contest the seat again.
Voters moving into Labor-held Bennelong turn that seat notionally Liberal.
First-term MP Jerome Laxale, who won by less than 1 per cent in 2022, faces having the eastern boundary of his seat extended through the high-income suburbs of Hunters Hill, Lane Cove, Longueville and Greenwich, and losing Labor-leaning Epping and North Epping at the northwestern end.
Senior Labor insiders expressed disappointment with the changes but called Mr Laxale the “best marginal campaigner in the country”.
“If anyone is going to save that seat it’s going to be him,” they said.
According to the AEC, almost 13 per cent of voters in NSW – about 713,000 – will change divisions as a result of the potential abolishment and boundary changes to 39 of the state’s remaining 46 seats.
Significant changes would also be in the state’s regional west, to Eden-Monaro Riverina and Angus Taylor’s Hume, which would shift towards greater Sydney and away from Goulburn.
In May, the AEC proposed abolishing the Melbourne division of Labor-held Higgins in that state’s own redistribution.
The abolishment of both North Sydney and Higgins would see the seats of two former Liberal treasurers disappear from the electoral map: former Nine chairman Peter Costello held Higgins between 1990 and 2009, and Joe Hockey held North Sydney for almost two decades from 1996.
The AEC’s reduction proposals for NSW and Victoria allow the creation of a new electorate in Western Australia.
Mr Samaras said the AEC were historically good at “balancing the political ledger”, although Labor and Liberal insiders felt the other had been dealt the stronger hand.
“Both parties I think are relieved by and large,” one senior Liberal figure said.
“But the veneer sometimes obscures what’s happening.”
That insider said one of its seats would be better off or the same, although eight would be worse off under the changes.
For example, it would weaken Melissa McIntosh’s hold on swing-seat Lindsay, with some of the strongest Liberal-voting suburbs around Emu Plains and Leonay moving to Macquarie.
A senior Labor source, however, said the proposed changes would make the party’s path to re-election more difficult.
“It feels more like the Liberal Party’s submission, there’s not a lot of silver linings for us,” they said.
“It makes our job of holding onto government harder.”
The ALP’s hold of mid-north coast marginal Paterson would be weakened as it lost Labor-voting areas around Kurri Kurri to Hunter.
Eden-Monaro may be a tighter contest than it was in 2022, won by Kirsty McBain with a margin of 8.2 per cent, with the Labor-voting inland centre of Yass shifted into neighbouring Riverina.
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