Tasmania’s Liberals have started negotiations with independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network to try to form government, as Labor concedes it is unlikely to be able to do so.
Caretaker Premier Jeremy Rockliff, whose Liberals on Saturday night failed to gain a majority but will hold the most seats, said on Sunday he had started discussions with likely independents and the JLN.
“I have already reached out to potential independents and indeed the Lambie party as well,” Mr Rockliff said.
“I look forward to those ongoing discussion to ensure … the new people that are elected to the Tasmanian parliament will want that certainty and stability that Tasmanians clearly deserve.”
However, it is unclear if the Liberal Party – which suffered a negative 12 point swing – will have enough independents and JLN MPs onside to strike a minority government agreement.
If an agreement cannot be made in the coming weeks, while counting continues, the Liberals will need to test their support on the floor of parliament.
Having survived that vote, the party would then need to rely on an essentially hostile parliament to pass every piece of legislation and for its ongoing survival.
That would appear to throw a cloud over key projects and policies, including the Hobart AFL stadium and the state retaining a stake in the Marinus Link energy project.
Labor leader Rebecca White – who is yet to flag whether she will seek to remain leader– conceded it was “very unlikely” her party could form government.
“On the outcome of the result yesterday, it seems very unlikely the Labor Party can form government," Ms White said on Sunday. "I respect that outcome, I respect the will of the people."
She said it was most likely, given constitutional conventions, that Governor Barbara Baker would first ask the incumbent Liberals to test their support on the floor of parliament.
However, it appears Labor would be willing to step in, should the Liberals not survive a no-confidence motion. The Greens, who will have four to six seats, have called for a change of government.
With the final make-up of the parliament to be unclear until all postal votes are received and the preference carve up begins on April 2, the state is entering a period of political limbo.
It appears the Liberals are likely to have 13 to 15 seats, Labor 10 or 11, the Greens 4 to 6, the Jacqui Lambie Network 2-3 and that up three independents could be elected.
Senator Lambie has said it will be up to her MPs to decide who to support to govern, but that the Liberals had done themselves “no favours” by attacking her party with a fake website during the campaign.
On Sunday, she told The Australian that, given it was not known which of her MPs would be elected, it was too soon to say what attitude the party would take.
“We have no idea who will be elected – we are just all staying grounded,” she said.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff suggested whoever formed government would need to heed her party’s policy positions. “The Greens will have a big say in the next parliament,” Dr Woodruff said.
“We’ve been very clear about our agenda in this campaign and we won’t stop from trying to achieve it – and that is big improvements for renters, big improvements for the environment, big improvements in the health system.”
The party would seek to kill the stadium to divert more funding to health and housing.
It was “not true” that the Liberals had won a victory but it was “very early days” in terms of whether the Greens would underwrite a Labor minority government.
“We’re going to sit back, take stock of what’s unfolding and wait until the count comes in and just be open to the conversations at that point,” she said.
