Political drama set to stir pot

TONIGHT, ABC1's Four Corners program will try to answer one of the great political questions of our time: how a government elected with widespread popular support came to brutally execute its leader after just a few years in office, lose its parliamentary majority at a disastrous election and is today historically unpopular with its credibility virtually destroyed.

After months of speculation, destabilisation and growing anxiety among Labor MPs over Julia Gillard's prime ministership, the program has the potential to blast open the leadership debate and prompt more soul-searching inside Labor as the reality of its predicament sets in.

The ABC1 crew have been working on the program since last October . They did not set out to do a hatchet job on Kevin Rudd or Gillard. They cast a wide net over the Labor Party in search of story ideas without any pre-determined agenda in mind. Screening it now has nothing to do with recent events; it was locked in to the schedule months ago.

The highly respected team led by reporter Andrew Fowler and producer Peter Cronau have been working intensely on the program over the past few weeks. They have spent more time than is usual for a Four Corners program and will provide several key insights into Labor in power between 2007 and 2012.

As they navigated their way through the internal politics and complex relationships in the Labor Party, they spoke to about 100 people on background. About a dozen interviews with current and former party insiders have been filmed, including Rudd confidant Rhys Muldoon, former minister Con Sciacca and Gillard herself.

Many declined to be interviewed, including mining magnate Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest. Rudd also declined, as he saw little merit in appearing on television to discuss his past in such a volatile, political environment. They did, however, film Rudd in Brisbane over several days in November, including when he launched my recent book on the Labor Party. I also sat down with them for an interview. In addition, filming took place at the ALP national conference in December.

They have examined Rudd's ascension to the prime ministership, his personal style and approach to politics and governing, key policy areas such as the mining tax controversy and the climate change back-flip, the faceless men and the coup that ended Rudd's prime ministership. They also reviewed Gillard's prime ministership and canvassed her future prospects, including the possibility of a further leadership change.

Backlighting the program is the decline of Labor, as members and supporters have deserted the party in droves, its organisational strength has withered, it has failed to refresh what it stands for in the modern era, its internal workings have become corrupted by factional politics, while the need for internal reform has been largely ignored.

The Four Corners program comes at a difficult time for the government, as leadership speculation has reached fever pitch in the media, reflecting the intense discussions inside Labor, business and the wider electorate. The reason the leadership question will not go away boils down to one inconvenient truth: the poor performance of Gillard as prime minister.

There would be no leadership speculation if Gillard were an authoritative leader at the helm of a strong and effective government, and this was reflected in opinion polling. Gillard's credibility evaporated when she promised never to challenge Rudd for the prime ministership, and then did so.

For many voters, this naked political treachery was a revealing insight into her character and they didn't like it. Nor did they like the carbon tax broken promise. Gillard has also not lived up to the expectations that Labor MPs had for her. No prime minister comes to the position fully formed and most grow in the role. Gillard has shrunk in the role. Her warm personality as a central aspect of her appeal, her talents as a speaker and debater and her policy expertise and strategic political nous have deserted her. A series of poor decisions, lacklustre speeches and wooden media appearances has reinforced negative perceptions about her leadership and led many to question her judgment.

Yes, Rudd Redux wants his old job back. He didn't want to leave it in the first place. He has a growing group of supporters campaigning for a restoration of his prime ministership. Though his ambitions are plainly obvious, it is not driving leadership rumblings in the caucus; Gillard's poor performance is.

Rudd's detractors say he is to blame for the government's problems and that Gillard is doing the best she can in the difficult circumstances of minority government. They are keen to remind the caucus what the WikiLeaks cables said about Rudd: he was a micro-manager and a control freak obsessed with the media and who didn't enjoy close relations with Labor MPs.

But in the community, Rudd still has broad, popular appeal and the polls reflect this. The voters never liked the way he was removed from the prime ministership and they have not taken a liking to his successor.

Gillard's great asset is her personal relationships with Labor MPs, which is stopping many shifting their support to Rudd. What Gillard does not have, and cannot expect, is loyalty and unity, given her role in Rudd's political execution. Expect to see more about this on Four Corners.

It is time to bring this matter to a head and for the caucus to decide whether to stick with Gillard, return to Rudd or embrace a third candidate.

In the meantime, the party is in a deep funk, the electorate is sick of the Gillard-Rudd soap opera and corporate leaders say it is sapping business confidence.

I do not believe that Labor will go to the next election with Gillard as leader if the government's performance does not significantly improve.

Tonight, Four Corners promises an insight into "one of the great political dramas of our times". It is likely to be the opening act in a political drama that is yet to unfold.