Peter Dutton vows to rebuild as Coalition vote slides in Newspoll

Support for the Coalition has plunged to its lowest level since September as Peter Dutton faces the fallout from the Liberal Party’s historic Aston by-election loss.

Peter Dutton, left, with failed Liberal party candidate Roshena Campbell in Melbourne over the weekend. Picture: David Crosling

Popular support for the federal Coalition has plunged to its lowest level since September as Peter Dutton faces the fallout from the Liberal Party’s historic by-election loss at the weekend that has left it with only two federal seats in metropolitan Melbourne.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition primary vote falling two points to 33 per cent nationally as Anthony Albanese extends his lead as preferred prime minister over the Opposition Leader.

The national poll, on the back of the Aston by-election loss, comes as colleagues of Mr Dutton moved to throw support behind his leadership amid calls for wholesale reform of the party from the branch level up to federal ­policy.

Mr Dutton called for “patience” on Sunday, claiming the political tide would eventually turn.

He vowed to take personal ­responsibility for rebuilding the party and after Labor pulled off a shock victory on Saturday in the by-election for the outer metropolitan Melbourne seat of Aston, vacated by retiring Liberal frontbencher Alan Tudge.

Mr Dutton told The Australian that the first task was rebuilding the party organisations in Victoria and NSW, where the Coalition lost power at the state election two weekends ago.

“In Victoria and NSW we need to rebuild our organisational structure because at the moment neither is campaign ready,” Mr Dutton said.

Anthony Albanese, right, with the new Aston MP, Mary Doyle, in Bayswater, Melbourne, on Sunday. Picture: Valeriu Campan

“Secondly, the government is riding high on their honeymoon and their position is a function of that.

“A lot of the issues we are fighting on today, and the markers we are putting on the ground today, won’t return dividends for another six to 12 months.

“We are in the process of going through the policy work, which we are well under way with and it’s a matter of being patient. That’s the virtue of opposition, you just keep chipping away.”

The swing of 6.4 per cent against the Liberal candidate in Aston, which saw Labor’s Mary Doyle elected, marked the first victory for a federal government in a by-election since 1920.

“I accept responsibility, I am the leader of the party,” Mr Dutton said.

“The question is how we ­rebuild from here, the policies we have, the brand rebuilding that we need to do in Victoria, it’s a very significant issue for us.”

However, he said his party would not be engaging in a rewriting of its principles, claiming the values upon which it was based since Robert Menzies were sound.

“The fundamentals of our party are not going to change. If we’ve got new policies to take to the election we’ll do it in good time,” he said.

The latest Newspoll survey of 1500 voters conducted between Wednesday and Saturday reveals a broader problem beyond Aston, with a fall in support for the ­Coalition at a national level.

The Newspoll shows the Liberal-Nationals parties losing ground to both Labor on the left and One Nation on the right, which posted its highest primary vote since 2018

With a one-point gain for Labor on a two-party preferred split, 55-45 per cent, the Coalition faces an almost 3 per cent swing against it since last May’s election, according to the latest survey.

The Coalition’s two-point fall in primary vote marked its lowest level of support since September and close to the party’s historical lows. Labor’s primary vote rose a point to 38 per cent while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation also added a point to 8 per cent, marking the highest level of support for the right-wing party in five years.

The Greens remained unchanged on 10 per cent – which is more than two points down on the last election result.

The other minor parties and independents, including the teals, were also unchanged at 11 per cent.

The poll was conducted following a week dominated by ­intense political debate over the Indigenous voice to parliament and the success of the Albanese government in passing key ­legislation including the climate change safeguard mechanism and the National Reconstruction Fund.

The survey period also covered the announcement of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal in mid-March.

Mr Albanese’s approval rating rose a point to 56 per cent while Mr Dutton’s fell two points to 35 per cent.

The most significant shift, however, was in the head-to-head contest between the two leaders, with Mr Albanese stretching his lead as the preferred prime minister, lifting four points to 58 per cent against a fall of two points for Mr Dutton to 26 per cent.

Speaking in Aston on Sunday, the Prime Minister tried to frame the result as an indictment on Mr Dutton.

He said the Opposition Leader was punished in Aston, a seat held by the Liberals since 1990, because he was preoccupied with “keeping the Liberal Party ­together” rather than offering a credible alternative.

“Australians don’t want any major party that’s focused on themselves and on their internals. What they want is a government and an alternative govern­ment that’s focused on their needs, on their issue, on their lives and improving them,” Mr Albanese said.

“He’s become an observer of Australian politics rather than a participant.”

As Mr Dutton sought to attribute much of the blame for the Aston result on the Victorian state branch, he conceded the party needed to reform.

“I think we need to do the analysis of Aston, have an understanding of what people were motivated by, what caused them to vote Labor for the first time,” he said.

“Labor spent the last five-weeks throwing mud at us. They are effective campaigners.”

“There are issues in relation to policy and personnel, issues in relation to our campaigning techniques.

“If you go back to 2013 when we had a landslide victory, Victoria was still held by the Labor Party in terms of the majority number of seats.

“It’s been going backwards for us since 1996.

“No Liberal leader before me has been able to rectify the situation in Victoria. Our brand has suffered terribly.”

Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto responded by saying while the party needed to ­reform, it needed to be a national effort. With the by-election loss now shortening the odds of an early federal election late next year, federal Liberal MPs said Mr Dutton’s leadership was “safe as houses” and that there was no credible suggestions his leadership was in danger.

“That’s not on the table. I think Peter genuinely has the ­capacity and confidence to succeed but it’s a massive mountain to climb,” a Liberal backbencher said.

“We’ve got to do everything at once. I don’t think it’s likely we’ll have an election by Christmas next year, I think it’s probable. That’s the timeframe we have to work off.”

Liberal MPs said Aston showed that Australians were “not blaming the government for cost-of-living pressures”.

“Voters are looking for comfort when they’re scared and ­nervous and in Melbourne at least, they are defaulting to support provided by the state and federal governments,” a Liberal MP said.

“Cost of living is working more for Labor than it is for Liberals. I think we’re seeing them shift left, not right.”

Victorian Liberal MP Keith Wolahan, who narrowly held the seat of Menzies last year by 1377 votes after copping an 8.8 per cent primary vote swing against him, told The Australian: “If we’re a party of character, of confidence, we can begin to earn the trust of Melbourne again.”

Mr Wolahan’s seat, which was a safe Liberal seat held by Kevin Andrews for 31-years, borders Kooyong, Chisholm and Deakin.

“As the Liberal who is the closest to the city of Melbourne, I want the people of Melbourne to know that we hear them, and we’re listening to them and we need to earn their trust again,” Mr Wolahan said.

“We need to make them know that their concerns are our concerns and I think more than anything we’ve got to demonstrate that my party and my division is one that values character and confidence again.”

Victorian Liberal senator Jane Hume – who co-wrote the Liberal Party election review with former federal director Brian Loughnane – said “for a dozen reasons, the electoral tide was too strong”.

“No one issue is ever the reason for an election loss and the same goes for a by-election – certainly that’s the case in Aston,” she said.

“Equally, an effective response by the Liberal Party is never simple or as binary as moving one way or another.

“The 2022 election review was never going to be implemented overnight, but the result in Aston reinforces that the ­rebuild and recalibration of the Liberal Party and the reclaiming of the Liberal brand are going to be fundamental to our electoral success.”

With former prime minister Scott Morrison expected to quit politics in the middle of the year, the Liberal Party is bracing for another by-election fight in the southern Sydney electorate of Cook.

A Liberal frontbencher said the “tide is moving out against us”, with dwindling memberships impacting the talent pool to select high-quality candidates.

“I have no doubt it will come back. It’s not the last one out, turn out the lights but it’s going to be a long road back,” the frontbencher said.