Peter Dutton lacks answers for Liberals’ critical challenges after Aston by-election

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, right, and the the new Aston MP, Mary Doyle, in Bayswater, Melbourne, on Sunday. Picture: Facebook

Peter Dutton and the federal Liberal Party now face two existential questions: who do they represent and what do they stand for?

The answer might be obvious to some in the party, but it’s clearly not apparent yet to voters.

The loss of Aston at the weekend was a cataclysmic moment for the federal division and those senior Liberals who had assumed the party would limp over the line rather than preside over an unfortunate addition to the historical record.

Peter Dutton has suggested that the defeat was symbolic primarily of a Victorian problem. Yet he is unable to identify what is driving voters away from the Liberal brand. Picture: Luis Ascui

There were several explanations: the wrong candidate for the seat, general dysfunction of the Victorian branch, the personal contest between Dutton and Anthony Albanese, and the fact that voters are so far reticent to blame the Labor government for the cost-of-living crisis.

Had the by-election been held in another six months it might have been a very different result.

But it wasn’t and it would be a mistake to assume that it is entirely a self-contained Victorian event.

The latest Newspoll confirms that there is a broader challenge emerging.

If a federal election were to be held this weekend, based on a reflection of the two-party preferred vote of 55-45, the Coalition would stand to lose another eight seats based on a general swing of almost 3 per cent to Labor since the last election.

This would wipe the Liberal Party from the map of metropolitan Melbourne, the country’s second-largest city. It would also knock Dutton out and lead to further losses in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.

Dutton has suggested that the defeat was symbolic primarily of a Victorian problem. Yet he is unable to identify what is driving voters away from the Liberal brand.

Newspoll alludes to a wider dilemma, underwritten by electoral apathy and indifference to the conservative proposition more broadly.

It also implies that things could still get worse.

The Liberal Party is now facing the same dilemma that faced Labor at the 2019 federal election. It is split over how to deal with competing electoral constituencies, reflected in its internal ­divisions, feeding into feeble policy responses and a fear of asserting traditional values.

It has lost ground to both One Nation on the right and to Labor from the centre.

A fall of two points in the ­Liberal-Nationals primary vote should be cause for serious concern, if not alarm.

At 33 per cent it is near but not quite yet at rock bottom, which was 31 per cent last August. This is not unfamiliar territory for the Coalition, however.

Within the space of the first 12 months of the last period it was in opposition, the Coalition primary vote bounced around between 31 per cent and 39 per cent.

What got the Coalition back in the game last time was the Labor Party’s own internal collapse. There are no signs that this is going to be repeated.

The point being, Dutton can’t wait around for events to turn in his favour.

Aston and the national polls represent two things: Labor’s propensity and ability to personalise its political attacks to devastating effect and the inability of the Liberal Party to re-establish any moral authority or policy expression of issues that would otherwise align with its values.

It also confirms Albanese as the dominant political figure.

He is reaping ongoing political dividends as a leader with authority, getting key bills through parliament and approaching contentious issues such as the voice with the appearance of conviction.

Rather than a rejection of conservatism it is a continuing endorsement of the Labor government.

While the consequences of its policies may not be cutting through, Albanese’s political messaging is.

His personal approval ratings remain strong. And he has only strengthened his dominance as the preferred prime minister over his rival.

Dutton’s leadership will be bruised from the events of the weekend, with the Newspoll results likely to add to a sense of panic.

However, it is unlikely to be under any short to medium-term threat.

But Dutton now faces three critical challenges to ensure it stays that way over the longer term: rebuilding morale within his parliamentary ranks, mapping out a policy plan for political recovery and taking a leadership role over the urgent reform of the party’s dysfunctional state divisions.

Dutton has no apparent prescription to the problem yet.

And Labor’s lines on the Liberal Party being out of touch, having nothing to say and consequently opposing everything are clearly resonating.

Dutton says there is no reason to change the values that have underwritten the party’s historical success since Menzies.

It appears the problem for the party then is a failure to express these values through policy and political messaging.