No vote gains more ground amid a loss of support for Peter Dutton

Support for the Indigenous voice has hit a new low ahead of the October 14 referendum but Peter Dutton’s approval ratings have also fallen.

Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese. The Newspoll head-to-head contest over who voters regard as the better prime minister remains relatively unchanged with Mr Albanese on 50 per cent and Mr Dutton falling a point to 30 per cent. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

National support for the Indigenous voice to parliament has failed to gain the expected campaign momentum heading into the final weeks before the October 14 referendum, with only slightly more than a third of surveyed voters now saying they will vote yes.

But the further decline in support has also coincided with a sharp fall in Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s approval ratings following a heated political debate over race, with satisfaction in the ­Opposition Leader’s performance now at a record low.

According to an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian, 36 per cent of surveyed voters say they intend to vote yes. This reflects a two-point fall in the past three weeks and a continuation of the erosion in support since the beginning of the year.

It also marks the lowest level of support so far for the federal government’s constitutional model to enshrine Indigenous recognition and a voice to parliament and executive government.

Despite Anthony Albanese’s campaign drive to win undecided voters, opposition to the referendum question has risen a further three points to 56 per cent, with less than three weeks to go before voters will cast their ballot.

The swing to the No vote has occurred across almost all age groups and other demographic indicators but is most pronounced among women and younger voters who have been the strongest supporters of the voice to date.

Support among women has fallen from 41 per cent to 36 per cent but the proportion of those saying they would vote no has risen nine points to 57 per cent.

There is now almost no difference between male and female voters in their current voting ­intention with support for the voice among men ticking up three points to 36 per cent.

The decline in support among younger voters, however, signals a concerning trend for the Yes ­campaign.

The 18-to-34-year-old demographic is the strongest support base for the voice. However, even among this group, support has ­fallen five points to 50 per cent with a four-point rise to 41 per cent for the No vote.

At the beginning of the year, support for the voice among this group was close to 70 per cent.

Support also fell further away in the critical 35-to-49-year-old age group with a three-point fall to 36 per cent in favour and five-point swing to 56 per cent toward those opposed.

The only demographic other than the male voting category to experience a lift in support was among university-educated voters, which rose five points to 54 per cent.

There has also been a fall in support among Labor voters, with those approving of the constitutional alteration falling from 61 per cent in the previous Newspoll to 56 per cent in the latest survey. Labor voters opposed to the voice rose five points to 36 per cent.

The latest Newspoll, which showed a further contraction in the number of voters who don’t know which way they will vote – down one point to 8 per cent – also tested the suggestion that Yes ­voters were more likely to turn out to vote, giving the Yes camp an ­advantage.

However, the poll found that No voters were just as likely to vote as Yes voters. The total of those definitely or very likely to vote was 91 per cent among Yes voters and 90 per cent among No voters.

However, the least likely to turn out were also those most ­likely to vote yes. Among 18-to-34-year-old voters, those with the strongest support for the voice, only 77 per cent said they would definitely or very likely to vote.

This compared to 97 per cent among those aged over 65, where the No vote was strongest.

The latest Newspoll also ­recorded a six-point fall in Mr ­Dutton’s satisfaction ratings to 32 per cent, with the Opposition Leader now at his lowest level of approval since taking the job. His net approval rating is now at minus 20.

Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings improved slightly to 47 per cent but also remain at historically low levels for the Prime Minister with a net approval rating of plus three.

The head-to-head contest over who voters regard as the better prime minister remains relatively unchanged with Mr Albanese on 50 per cent and Mr Dutton falling a point to 30 per cent.

The Coalition and Labor are now level pegged on primary vote support at 36 per cent each – with a one-point gain for Labor and a one-point fall for the Liberal/­Nationals parties since the last Newspoll at the beginning of ­September.

The Greens suffered a two-point fall to 11 per cent, during a period in which the minor party dropped its opposition to the ­government’s housing bill.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party fell a point to 6 per cent while support for other minor parties and independents rose three points to 11 per cent.

The two-party-preferred vote has lifted for Labor which leads the Coalition 54-46 per cent – a two-point increase in the margin.

Mr Albanese has summoned his cabinet to meet in ­Adelaide today, with South ­Australia regarded as a critical state for both sides of the voice campaign.

At the weekend Mr Albanese urged voters to consider what was at stake.

“I would just encourage people to not be focused on what this isn’t about, but be focused on what it is about,” the Prime Minister said.

“It is about just recognition, and is about giving people a voice, over, a say, over their affairs, because then you’ll get better outcomes. And with that comes responsibility as well.”

The latest Newspoll surveyed 1239 voters throughout Australia via online interviews between September 18 and September 22.