Such a shift is crucial for the Yes campaign to maintain a belief that there is still a path to victory.
It hasn’t happened.
On the contrary, the erosion in underlying support continues.
The case for change has weakened even further with no sign that the Yes campaign has been successful in building any momentum in its favour, across any age group.
The latest poll points to a significant defeat. For both the voice, and for Anthony Albanese personally.
Little more than a third of voters now support the proposition. Its hard to see how this will change between now and October 14. A significant majority of voters reject what’s on offer.
The political damage the voice debate has inflicted on both political leaders is now acute. The previous Newspoll revealed the damage to the Prime Minister, dipping into negative territory for the first time in his leadership and slumping to his lowest approval ratings on record.
He has recovered marginally since then.
The latest Newspoll reveals the extent of damage to Peter Dutton. He has now suffered a significant hit, with his approval ratings dropping to the lowest level since he took on the leadership of the Liberal Party.
The No vote increases as Dutton’s personal numbers decline. Not only does this suggest that there is no corresponding electoral benefit for the Coalition if the referendum fails, it implies that while No voters may not like the voice, many are clearly unsettled and irritated by the tone of the debate.
Dutton now appears to be caught up in an apparent rejection of negativity.
One thing is certain; there will be no political winners out of this.
With support now at just 36 per cent, the Yes campaign’s challenge is more comprehensive than at any time during the year-long debate.
Not only is it failing to sway undecided voters, it is losing some of those it was relying on as locked-in supporters.
Younger voters, who have formed the base of Yes support, have been on a steady decline over the past few months. At the start of the year, support among this group was close to 70 per cent. It is now at 50 per cent.
This is a critical development in the campaign, as has been the erosion of support among female voters.
Middle Australia – 35 to 49-year-olds – is also hardening against the voice.
This group had been in favour until recently. Support is now at 36 per cent. If the campaign can’t win this group, it can’t win at all.
Albanese is also losing Labor voters to the No camp.
This will have implications after October 14.
Looking at the latest Newspoll, you wouldn’t be putting too much faith in the belief that voter turnout will favour the Yes side.
If anything, it starts with a disadvantage.
Those most likely to vote Yes – the young - are the least likely to turn out to vote.
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If there was going to be a swing of support back towards the voice, it would have started to show up by now.