No vote for Voice tips over 50 per cent as Coalition leads Labor on Newspoll primary vote

Labor is behind the Coalition in primary votes and Anthony Albanese’s personal approval has gone negative for his first time as PM as support for the voice drops further.

The Coalition has leapt ahead of Labor on primary votes for the first time since last year’s election and ­Anthony Albanese has dipped into negative territory, as support for the voice dropped further following the ­referendum date announcement and the official launch of a six-week ­campaign.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows ­support for an Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government falling to 38 per cent and those intending to vote No rising to 53 per cent.

This marks the first time that ­opposition to a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice to parliament and executive ­government has achieved an outright majority.

It comes as support for the ­Coalition lifts to its highest level since the May 2022 election, with the opposition now leading Labor 37 per cent to 35 per cent on primary votes.

While Labor still leads comfortably on a two-party preferred lead of 53-47 per cent, the Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have also fallen into negative territory for the first time in his premiership.

Mr Albanese now faces a divisive six-week campaign ahead of the October 14 referendum with electoral support for the government in a weakened position as cost-of-living issues continue to bite with households.

The results reflect shifting sentiments in the six-week gap since the previous Newspoll on July 15. This survey was conducted between last Monday and Friday and polled 1200 voters throughout Australia. The further decline in support for the voice follows the Prime Minister’s announcement last week that the referendum would be held on October 14.

The fall in favour for the voice – on the back of a five-point rise in the No vote and a three point ­decline in the Yes vote since July – was consistent almost across the board with the most notable ­declines among men and the ­important demographic of 35 to 49-year-olds.

The only age group with a ­majority in favour of the voice now is the 18 to 34-year-old group. But among these younger voters there was a four-point decline in support to 55 per cent.

There was now a majority against the referendum question across all other age groups, with 66 per cent of over 65s, 61 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds and 51 per cent of 35 to 49-year-olds saying they intended to vote No.

Support among men fell 12 points to 33 per cent, with the No vote rising to 59 per cent. The gap between regional and metropolitan voters also narrowed, with a decline in the city based vote, which had previously favoured a Yes vote but had now switched with 48 per cent saying they would now vote No compared with 42 per cent in support.

Those claiming not to have ­decided how they would vote narrowed to 9 per cent from 11 per cent in the previous survey.

The latest Newspoll figures came as Peter Dutton pledged to hold his own referendum on ­Indigenous constitutional recognition if he were to win the next election, which is due in 2025. “I think it’s right and respectful to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution – we will work with the Labor Party to find a common ground,” the Opposition Leader told Sky News on Sunday.

“Yes, I believe very strongly that (constitutional recognition) is the right thing to do. But enshrining a voice in the Constitution is divisive.

“It will divide the country down the middle; it will not provide practical outcomes.”

Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney and voice co-­architect Megan Davis blasted Mr Dutton’s proposal for a second vote on constitutional recognition, and said only a voice would change Indigenous lives.

“Peter Dutton and the ­Coalition spent nine years in ­government and failed to progress constitutional recognition,” Ms Burney said. “October 14 is the one shot Australians will get at ­recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait ­Islander people in our ­Constitution.”

Professor Davis said there was “zero evidence anywhere in the world that a statement of recognition changes anything, so that’s my response”.

In troubling signs for the government, the continuing decline in support for the voice coincides with primary support for Labor falling to its lowest level since last year’s election, slipping a point to 35 per cent.

While this remains 2.4 points above its election result, the poll shows the Coalition for the first time securing stronger underlying voter support.

Mr Albanese has also suffered a significant fall in his personal ­approval ratings, with satisfaction in his performance falling from 52 per cent in July to 46 per cent in the latest Newspoll.

Those dissatisfied with the Prime Minister rose six points to 47 per cent.

The Greens, which remain locked in battle with Labor over the government’s affordable ­housing bill and resources tax, have also lifted a point to 13 per cent, while support for other minor parties and independents – including the teal independents fell three points to 8 per cent.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party remained stable at 7 per cent of the total vote.

The Coalition’s primary vote has lifted three points since the previous Newspoll in July to 37 per cent, representing a high-water mark for the Liberal-Nationals in this term of parliament and the first time it has lifted above its election result of 35.7 per cent. The ­Coalition had fallen to as low as 31 per cent almost a year ago.

The two-party preferred vote lead of 55-45 per cent enjoyed by Labor in the previous poll has been cut to 53-47 per cent.

The poll period also covers the current controversy over airfares and the government’s decision to block Qatar Airways from providing more flights into Australia in competition with Qantas, as well as the ALP national conference where Mr Albanese went into ­battle with the unions and left-wing factions over the AUKUS ­security pact and submarine deal with the UK and the US.

This has produced the first net negative result – minus one – for Mr Albanese’s approval rating since the election.

While he still holds a strong lead over Mr Dutton on that measure, Mr Albanese has also suffered a four-point fall to 50 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes, with Mr Dutton lifting two points to 31 per cent.

This is the narrowest margin between the two leaders.

However, Mr Dutton’s low ­approval ratings remain largely unchanged. Those satisfied with him rose two points to 38 per cent while those with a negative view stayed at 49 per cent, leaving the Opposition Leader with a net negative approval rating of minus 11.

Support among Labor voters for the voice remained stable at 61 per cent, while Labor No voters rose three points to 31 per cent.

There was also an increase in the No vote among Greens voters from 15 per cent in July to 26 per cent in the latest poll, and a clear fall in the Yes vote among supporters of the minor party from 76 per cent to 64 per cent.