Newspoll: Post-poll reality check for Coalition

EXCLUSIVE | The Coalition’s commanding electoral lead over Labor has slipped.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to the media at the South Australian Liberal Party Annual General Meeting. Picture: AAP

The Coalition’s commanding electoral lead over Labor has slipped, in a sign the post-election honeymoon for the government has ended amid growing concerns over the economy and a clash over climate change.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition has lost its post-election gains but is still dominating, with a 51-49 two-party-preferred lead over Labor.

Scott Morrison has extended his lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister while weathering a hit to his personal approval ratings.

The Labor leader has also recorded the best net approval ratings for an opposition leader since December 2013.

The poll shows a two-point drop in the two-party-preferred vote for the Coalition since the electoral surge in July, which saw the government stretch its lead over Labor to 53-47.

At the time this was attributed largely to the government meeting its election pledge by getting its $158 billion income tax cuts through the parliament.

Since then popular support for the Coalition, according to the latest Newspoll, has dropped two points to 42 per cent, leaving it slightly ahead of the election result that delivered it victory on a primary vote of 41.4 per cent and a two-party-preferred vote of 51.5-48.5.

Labor’s primary vote jumped a point to 34 per cent in the latest survey.

However, this remains at historically low levels for the party and is only slightly above the election result of 33.3 per cent, which was the worst for Labor at an election in 85 years.

Popular support for One Nation also rose a point to 4 per cent compared with the last poll in July and is almost a full point ahead of the election result.

The biggest movement came from a fall in approval of Mr Morrison’s performance, with a six-point rise in the number of people dissatisfied to 42 per cent and a reduction in net satisfaction rating of plus-15 to plus-six points. While his personal numbers are still stronger than before the election, the shift marked a nine-point turnaround in the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction ratings since the last poll conducted from July 25-28.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese improved his stocks, with a two-point rise in satisfaction ratings matched by a two-point fall in those dissatisfied, which produced a net satisfaction rating of plus seven. Mr Morrison, however, remained the preferred prime minister at 48 per cent compared with 30 per cent for Mr Albanese, who fell a point since the last survey.

The poll was conducted during a period in which the political contest had cooled, with the federal parliament on a six-week autumn-winter break.

But the period since the last poll was published also included the last week of the July parliamentary sitting, during which Energy Minister Angus Taylor came under pressure over his alleged failure to declare family business interests as required.

Concerns more generally have continued to increase over economic conditions, with global trade tensions between the US and China overflowing into a hit to the local share market.

Last week, at the Pacific Islands Forum, Australia faced renewed calls by regional leaders to move to a coal-free energy sector amid New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s call for Australia to be held accountable for its climate change policy.

This was the second Newspoll conducted since the federal election on May 18.

The first post-election poll conducted at the end of July showed a swing towards the Coalition of 2.6 percentage points, which saw its primary vote lift to 44 per cent for the first time since before the previous 2016 election.

The latest Newspoll survey of 1623 voters was conducted across all states in both city and country areas. The margin of error is 2.4 percentage points plus or minus.