The latest Newspoll highlights two undeniable points: the Prime Minister has entrenched his standing with voters during the coronavirus crisis, yet in doing so he hasn’t managed to substantially lift the standing of the Coalition he leads.
In other words, Scott Morrison is popular, but his government is not. It’s a paradox.
The unknown question is, when the crisis is put in the nation’s rear view mirror which driver of voter sentiment will win out? The standing the PM has built during the pandemic, or the lost credibility the government suffered from long before it began?
If we rewind to last year’s election, Morrison’s personal skills drove the unlikely electoral success his government enjoyed. It wasn’t a team effort (other than the campaign assistance the PM received from federal Liberal Party Director Andrew Hirst).
The Coalition was a one-man show — Morrison using his political skills to unpick Bill Shorten. Neither leader was popular, however Morrison’s capacity to drive down support for Shorten’s opposition was the difference.
Today, Morrison has built a form of popularity around voters’ trust in his competence. Risks were present in the wake of the bushfires, but the lockdown appears to have defeated the virus, and the traditional support voters provide for Coalition economic management is sustaining the government during the early stages of the recovery.
Today’s Newspoll suggests the opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, has a difficult road ahead of him. Down 26 to 56 per cent on the better PM stakes, Morrison is a long way out in front. And tearing bark off the PM is made difficult when 66 per cent of voters are satisfied with the job he’s doing.
The only glimmer of hope for Albanese that these figures might turn around quickly if the recovering goes bad are the close two-party vote (Labor trails 49-51 per cent) and Albo’s personal satisfaction rating. He has a net score of positive three points (41 per cent satisfaction and 38 per cent dissatisfaction).
In ordinary circumstances that would be a strong personal rating for the opposition leader, but these aren’t ordinary circumstances.
The concern Labor strategists would have is that they know Morrison can unpick an opposition leader even when he and his government were thoroughly unpopular, like what happened to Shorten. His capacity to do so in these circumstances is likely to be even greater.
Which means Labor’s chances appear to be in the hands of the gods, as well as the government and how it goes rebuilding Australia. Either way, Labor’s fortunes at the next election are largely out of its hands.
Yes, a slow recovery with more pot holes on the road than the government would like will upset voters and raise doubts as to whether this Coalition deserves a fourth term. But does anyone seriously think even if the economy falters, voters will decide to entrust fixing it to the Labor opposition? Notwithstanding all manner of scandals such as sports rorts and the robodebt fiasco?
Fairly or unfairly, that is highly unlikely.
Peter van Onselen is Political Editor at Network 10 and a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University
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