Newspoll: Labor support takes a hip-pocket hit, falls to post-election low

Popular support for Labor has fallen to its lowest level in Newspoll since the 2022 election as the cost-of-living crisis bites.

Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings fell in the June Newspoll. Picture: Getty Images

Popular support for Labor has fallen to its lowest level nationally since the 2022 election as the cost-of-living crisis begins to bite electorally for the government and voters swing to independents and minor parties.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote falling two points to 36 per cent, marking its weakest result since it won office with base support of 32.6 per cent.

It comes as the Coalition celebrated a rare victory in the Fadden by-election at the weekend with a swing towards the LNP of around 2 per cent in a contest framed around inflation and interest rate pressures.

While the win is seen as a positive sign for the LNP in Queensland, the Coalition has lost ground nationally, falling a point to 34 per cent in the wake of damning findings levelled against the former Coalition government by the Robo­debt royal commission.

The latest survey showed a three-point rise in support for minor parties and independents, suggesting a backlash against the major parties, which have been engaged in political battles over the voice to parliament and Robodebt for the past three weeks while failing to address voters’ primary concerns over the cost of living.

Support for the Greens, which have been campaigning on rental pressures, rose a point to 12 per cent. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation lifted a point to 7 per cent; support for other minor parties and independents rose a point to 11 per cent.

Preference flows from minor parties and independents, which has risen to 30 per cent overall, still strongly favour Labor, which has improved its two-party-preferred margin over the Coalition by two points to 55-45.

The Newspoll was conducted between July 12 and July 15 and surveyed 1570 voters throughout Australia.

The fall in party support for Labor follows a decline in Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings in the previous poll in June and which remain relatively unchanged at the lowest levels since he was elected as Prime Minister in May last year.

His approval rating in the latest survey remains at 52 per cent while those dissatisfied with his performance dropped a point to 41 per cent, giving the prime minister a net approval rating of plus 11.

Peter Dutton’s approval ratings fell two points to 36 per cent while his dissatisfaction rating remained unchanged on 49 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 13.

In the head-to-head contest, Mr Albanese lifted two points as preferred prime minister to 54 per cent while Mr Dutton dropped three points to 29 per cent.

This followed a significant bump for the Liberal leader in the previous poll and has the margin enjoyed by Mr Albanese over his rival slightly below the long-run average.

The latest Newspoll shows that while Labor has lost ground, the Coalition has failed to capitalise with any improvement in its own position.

‘Strong victory’: Peter Dutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

On Sunday, the Coalition was claiming a “strong” victory in the Fadden by-election forced by the resignation of former minister Stuart Robert, while Labor said it was within their expectations and labelling it a “lethargic” win for the LNP.

Jim Chalmers described the result as “entirely what was expected” but said Labor needed to do better in Queensland. “We are neither surprised nor troubled by the outcome,” the Treasurer said.

“It was entirely what was expected. If anything, the LNP under­performed against the historical average, after spending more than half a million dollars on the seat, which we think was probably at least 10 times what Labor spent on the seat.

“It‘s been hard yards for us in Queensland for some time, and obviously we need to do much better in Queensland than we have for the last decade or so.”

Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley said it was a “terrific result” and a “strong endorsement of Peter Dutton”.

“We don’t know how big the swing will be, but we’re talking about a swing to the LNP around 2 to 3 per cent,” Ms Ley said.

“That’s before postals and prepolls are counted, and we expect them to break our way.”

“What I saw in Queensland and what I know I’m going to see the rest of this week is a strong endorsement of Peter Dutton, of our team, and of our candidates.”