Newspoll: Labor extends poll lead over Coalition, edges towards majority government

Labor is now leading the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis, with the single-point gain mirroring the 2022 election result, despite voters backing Peter Dutton as the stronger and more decisive leader.

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Labor has increased its lead over the Coalition heading into the second week of the election campaign, with Anthony Albanese edging closer towards retaining majority government despite voters backing Peter Dutton as the stronger and more decisive leader.

An exclusive Newspoll con­ducted for The Australian shows Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

This is a single-point gain for Labor and now mirrors the 2022 federal election result, in which Labor won government with a ­majority of just one seat.

The two-party preferred improvement has come from a one-point fall in primary vote support for the Coalition, to 36 per cent, rather than any gains for the ALP.

Labor’s primary vote remains unchanged on 33 per cent compared to the previous poll, showing no lift in underlying support for the Albanese government over the course of the first week of the election campaign, which was dominated by US President Donald Trump’s move to impose worldwide tariffs on exports to the US.

But the ­Coalition’s primary vote is now at the lowest level since June 2024, marking the continuation of a gradual decline in support since March this year.

It has seen an eight-point lead over Labor on the primary vote narrow to just three points in the latest survey, having led Labor 39 per cent to 31 per cent in January.

Mr Dutton, however, has ­managed to close Mr Albanese’s lead as the preferred prime minister to just eight points – but he has lost ground on key attributes considered relevant to the leadership contest.

The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen four points since November, when it reached a post-election high of 40 per cent.

This was the first time the Liberal/Nationals had reached 40 per cent since 2021.

It appears to have lost ground in the latest survey to the minor right-wing party, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which lifted a point to 7 per cent – two points higher than the party’s 2022 election result of 5 per cent.

The Greens have not moved from 12 per cent, which is also in line with their 2022 result, while other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, remain on 12 per cent with no movement from the previous poll published last week.

But this is 2.5 per cent lower than their result at the last election.

The first Newspoll of the campaign proper shows both major parties locked in a contest that reflects the last election result, which resulted in a combined record-low level of primary vote support for the Coalition and Labor at 68 per cent of the overall primary vote.

The last time Labor was ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred split of 52-48 was in May 2024.

Labor won the election with a primary vote of 32.6 per cent against the Coalition’s 35.7 per cent, which produced a two-party preferred result of 52.1 per cent in favour of Labor, due to the large preference flow from the Greens.

Mr Albanese increased his lead as the more trustworthy and caring leader and has overtaken Mr Dutton for the first time as understanding the major issues and when considered on the measure of leadership experience.

The last time leader attributes were tested was in December 2024.

Mr Dutton had led Mr Albanese since the last election as the leader considered to be more experienced until now, with Mr Albanese overtaking Mr Dutton to lead 71 per cent to 68 per cent.

However, Mr Dutton maintains a convincing lead over Mr Albanese on who is considered the more decisive and stronger leader – 62 per cent to 48 per cent.

Mr Dutton also held on to a slight leader over Mr Albanese on the question of which leader has a vision for Australia, although Mr Albanese has closed the gap on this measure to a single point.

But the Liberal leader has lost dominance as the leader with a greater understanding of the major issues, with Mr Albanese now leading on this measure for the first time.

Mr Albanese also extended his lead as less arrogant, more caring and more likeable than his rival.

Voters’ assessment of both leaders’ performances remains largely unchanged, with a slight improvement for Mr Dutton over the past week and a two-point dip in net satisfaction with Mr Albanese.

The Prime Minister’s approval rating fell a point to 42 per cent against a rise in dissatisfaction to 53 per cent. His net satisfaction rating has fallen from minus 11 to minus nine over the course of the first week of the campaign.

Mr Dutton’s approval rating lifted a point to 38 per cent, with no change in dissatisfaction. The ­Opposition Leader’s net approval rating improved from minus 17.

The larger improvement for Mr Dutton was in the head-to-head contest over who would make the better prime minister.

Mr Dutton lifted two points to 40 per cent while Mr Albanese dropped a point to 48 per cent.

However, this is still a larger gap than in January when Mr Dutton closed the margin to just three points.

The latest Newspoll was conducted between March 31 and April 4 with 1250 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.