Newspoll: Voters expect Labor in minority government

A majority of voters now expect a Labor minority government, as the Coalition’s primary vote falls to below levels recorded at the last election amid a boost in personal approval for Anthony Albanese.

Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese at their respective campaign launches on Sunday.

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A majority of voters now expect the May 3 election to deliver a hung parliament and a Labor minority government, as primary vote support for the Coalition falls to below levels recorded at the last election amid a boost in personal approval for Anthony Albanese.

An exclusive Newspoll for The Australian shows expectations have swung significantly since the start of this year when a majority of voters expected the Coalition to win the election.

Despite the increasing expectation of a hung parliament, two-thirds want a majority govern­ment, with 32 per cent wanting it to be led by Labor and 32 per cent wanting the Coalition.

The latest Newspoll, the second of the campaign, shows the decline in primary vote support continuing for the Coalition, which has fallen a further point to 35 per cent.

This follows a week dominated by market turmoil triggered by Donald Trump’s trade war, the ditching of the Coalition’s return to the office mandate for public servants and a closely contested leaders’ debate.

This is the third consecutive poll to record a decline in the ­Coalition’s primary vote, which reached a high of 40 per cent in November last year and 39 per cent in January this year.

It is now at its lowest ebb since October 2023, prior to the outcome of the voice referendum, but lower than was recorded at the last election where it achieved 35.7 per cent.

This resulted in the lowest representation for the Coalition in the House of Representatives since the Liberal Party was formed.

However, Labor also continues to struggle with low primary vote support, which remains at 33 per for the third successive poll and consistent with the party’s last election result, the lowest for the ALP since the Great Depression.

The loss in support for the Coalition since the start of the campaign has coincided with a lift for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. PHON’s primary vote rose a point to 8 per cent, which marks a two-point gain for the minor right-wing party since March and is the highest primary vote since April 2022.

It is three points higher than the 2022 election.

Support for the Greens remains unchanged at 12 per cent, consistent with the last election, with other minor parties and independents, including teal independents, also stable at 12 per cent. This is more than two points below the last election.

With Labor leading the Coalition on a two-party-preferred vote of 52-48 per cent for the second week in a row, the election outcome is still suggesting a hung parliament or a slim Labor majority.

The lift in Labor’s primary vote from 31 per cent since February aligns with an improvement in Mr Albanese’s personal approval, which rose again in the latest survey.

It has moved from a net negative result of minus 20 in February – the Prime Minister’s worst result since being elected – to minus four in the latest poll.

Personal support for Peter Dutton has worsened further, with his approval ratings now the lowest for an opposition leader during an election campaign since Bill Shorten.

Mr Dutton’s approval rating fell a point to 37 per cent against a rise in dissatisfaction to 56 per cent, leading to a net negative approval ratings of minus 19, which is one below his worst result of minus 20 earlier in the term. Mr Albanese has also extended further his lead as the preferred prime minister, gaining a point to 49 per cent against a two-point fall for Mr Dutton to 38 per cent.

The 11-point margin in favour of Mr Albanese compares to a three-point margin at the beginning of this year.

The improvements for Labor and Mr Albanese since March are reflected in a notable shift in voter expectations for the outcome of the election.

In January, the Coalition was tipped by voters as favourite to win the election with a 53-47 margin over Labor.

This has been more than reversed in the space of just three months to a 64 per cent expectation of a Labor government and 36 per cent expectation of a Coalition government.

This includes either a majority or minority government, with a minority Labor government now considered the most likely outcome according to voters at 43 per cent. It was just 32 per cent in January.

When it came to the question of what outcome voters wanted, one in five voters – 21 per cent- said they wanted a hung parliament with a minority Labor government in coalition with Greens or independents.

Only 15 per cent said they wanted a Coalition minority government.

Some 64 per cent wanted a majority government in one form or other and were equally split on which party that was.

There was a significant generational difference on this question, with 53 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds wanting a hung parliament with either a minority Labor government or minority Coalition government. This was a more favoured outcome than a Labor majority government and is likely heavily influenced by the higher proportion of Greens voters in this age group.

Only 12 per cent of over 65s wanted a minority Labor government but even among this age group, this was a more favoured outcome than a minority Coalition government.

This survey was conducted between April 7 and April 10 with 1271 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.